feat(dialer): CPS Limiter + Predictive Dialer Engine

Fecha agente.md secao 72-86 (motor preditivo) e 77-79 (CPS distribuido, reserva de leads, lock de campanha). Uma campanha RUNNING agora origina chamadas sozinha, respeitando capacidade de agentes, CPS hierarquico e taxa de abandono — sem intervencao manual. Deliberadamente fora do escopo (agente.md secao 72: "nao e' so' `for lead -> originate`"): mod_avmd (opcional), callbacks agendados, disposicoes de agente — ficam pra fase CDR. ## Novo servico apps/predictive-dialer Mesmo padrao arquitetural de fs-events/fs-config: Node standalone em Docker, ESL propria, tick a cada 2s sobre tenants ativos x campanhas RUNNING/WAITING_SCHEDULE. - Lock de campanha (dialer:campaign:{id}, secao 79): TTL/ownership/ renewal/safe-release via Lua compare-and-delete. - CPS distribuido (secao 77, 62): token bucket janela 1s, hierarquia GLOBAL/TENANT/TRUNK/CAMPAIGN numa unica chamada Lua atomica — nivel esgotado bloqueia todos SEM incremento parcial dos que passariam. - Reserva atomica de leads (secao 78): FOR UPDATE SKIP LOCKED dentro da mesma transacao withTenantContext. - CallAttempt/CampaignStats (schema novo): state machine da chamada (secao 82) + EWMA (secao 75) de answer_probability/average_answer_delay/ average_talk_time/abandon_rate por campanha. - Capacidade em tempo real + pacing (secao 73-76, 84-85): conta agentes por estado via Tier->Agent.state, previsao de liberacao (horizonte unico de 15s, simplificacao documentada dos 4 buckets da especificacao), controle de abandono reduz pacing progressivamente, nunca origina sem capacidade prevista. ## Modo simulacao (secao 185-186) DIALER_SIMULATION=true (default, ja estava no .env desde o inicio da sessao) sorteia ANSWER/BUSY/NO_ANSWER/FAILED em software, sem PSTN real. So' quando ANSWERED e' que uma chamada sintetica (null/dummy, sem PSTN) entra na fila real via mod_callcenter de verdade — escolha deliberada pra maximizar codigo real exercitado em vez de simular tudo em memoria. Os identificadores da secao 81 (b2bcall_tenant_id/call_id/attempt_id/ campaign_id/lead_id) vao como channel variables nessa perna, entregando tenantId real no WebSocket sem fan-out. Real Outbound Safety (secao 186): as duas flags checadas no boot, nunca ativadas automaticamente — caminho PSTN real implementado mas nunca exercitado (sem trunk/operadora real neste laboratorio). ## Dois bugs reais achados e corrigidos testando esta fase - Perna sintetica (null/dummy) nao tem midia do outro lado — nunca desligava sozinha depois de bridgear com um agente. Corrigido com hangup agendado via uuid_kill no talk_time simulado. - Corrida entre queue:sync e tier:sync (dois canais Redis independentes, sem ordem garantida): atribuir tier logo depois de criar a fila podia rodar tier add antes do queue reload terminar ("-ERR Queue not found!", erro real, diferente do ja conhecido "already exist"). Corrigido com retry curto (ate 3 tentativas) em agent-sync.ts::addTierWithRetry. ## GET /campaigns/:id/stats Secao 227.7 "visualizar pacing" — CampaignStats + agentes por estado + calls em andamento, sem esperar a fase Frontend. Verificado ponta a ponta: campanha RUNNING originando 3 tentativas por tick, outcomes simulados corretos com retry agendado (BUSY 15min/ NO_ANSWER 60min/FAILED 30min), uma tentativa ANSWERED completando o ciclo real inteiro (fila -> agente -> bridge -> hangup -> EWMA atualizada), stop nao derruba chamada ativa (secao 66), calls_answered=3 confirmado no `queue list` do FreeSWITCH. CPS limiter e lock de campanha testados isoladamente (hierarquia sem incremento parcial, ownership nunca roubado). typecheck do workspace inteiro limpo. Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01X1HxY46WGU4G1zmVDNKcWw
2026-08-28 13:31:31 -03:00
parent 7b62ad3d82
commit cb6d343b2e
29 changed files with 1851 additions and 28 deletions
--- a/apps/predictive-dialer/Dockerfile
+++ b/apps/predictive-dialer/Dockerfile
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+# syntax=docker/dockerfile:1.7
+#
+# Mesmo padrão de apps/freeswitch-events/Dockerfile: roda via `tsx` direto
+# (sem etapa de `tsc build`), build a partir da raiz do monorepo.
+FROM node:22-slim
+
+RUN corepack enable && corepack prepare pnpm@11.24.0 --activate
+
+WORKDIR /repo
+
+COPY pnpm-workspace.yaml package.json pnpm-lock.yaml tsconfig.base.json ./
+COPY packages/types packages/types
+COPY packages/shared packages/shared
+COPY packages/telephony packages/telephony
+COPY packages/database packages/database
+COPY apps/predictive-dialer apps/predictive-dialer
+
+RUN pnpm install --frozen-lockfile --filter @b2bcall/predictive-dialer...
+
+# `prisma generate` só precisa do schema, não de uma conexão real.
+ENV DATABASE_URL="postgresql://placeholder:placeholder@localhost:5432/placeholder"
+RUN pnpm --filter @b2bcall/database exec prisma generate
+
+WORKDIR /repo/apps/predictive-dialer
+
+CMD ["pnpm", "exec", "tsx", "src/main.ts"]
--- a/apps/predictive-dialer/package.json
+++ b/apps/predictive-dialer/package.json
@@ -0,0 +1,23 @@
+{
+  "name": "@b2bcall/predictive-dialer",
+  "version": "0.0.1",
+  "private": true,
+  "scripts": {
+    "dev": "tsx watch src/main.ts",
+    "build": "tsc -p tsconfig.json",
+    "start": "node dist/main.js",
+    "typecheck": "tsc --noEmit"
+  },
+  "dependencies": {
+    "@b2bcall/database": "workspace:*",
+    "@b2bcall/shared": "workspace:*",
+    "@b2bcall/telephony": "workspace:*",
+    "esl": "11.2.1",
+    "ioredis": "^6.0.0"
+  },
+  "devDependencies": {
+    "@types/node": "^22.0.0",
+    "tsx": "^4.23.12",
+    "typescript": "^5.7.0"
+  }
+}
--- a/apps/predictive-dialer/src/call-attempt.ts
+++ b/apps/predictive-dialer/src/call-attempt.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,137 @@
+import { randomUUID } from "node:crypto";
+import type { CallAttempt, CallAttemptStatus, Prisma } from "@b2bcall/database";
+import { computeNextAttemptAt } from "./retry-rules";
+import { ewmaUpdate } from "./ewma";
+
+export interface CreateAttemptParams {
+  tenantId: string;
+  campaignId: string;
+  leadId: string;
+  simulated: boolean;
+}
+
+export async function createCallAttempt(
+  tx: Prisma.TransactionClient,
+  params: CreateAttemptParams,
+): Promise<CallAttempt> {
+  return tx.callAttempt.create({
+    data: {
+      tenantId: params.tenantId,
+      campaignId: params.campaignId,
+      leadId: params.leadId,
+      simulated: params.simulated,
+      status: "RESERVED",
+    },
+  });
+}
+
+export async function setAttemptStatus(
+  tx: Prisma.TransactionClient,
+  attemptId: string,
+  status: CallAttemptStatus,
+  extra: Partial<Pick<CallAttempt, "originationUuid" | "ringingAt" | "answeredAt" | "bridgedAt" | "agentId">> = {},
+): Promise<void> {
+  await tx.callAttempt.update({ where: { id: attemptId }, data: { status, ...extra } });
+}
+
+export function newOriginationUuid(): string {
+  return randomUUID();
+}
+
+export type TerminalOutcome = "COMPLETED" | "BUSY" | "NO_ANSWER" | "FAILED" | "ABANDONED";
+
+export interface CompleteAttemptParams {
+  attemptId: string;
+  tenantId: string;
+  campaignId: string;
+  leadId: string;
+  outcome: TerminalOutcome;
+  reachedQueue: boolean;
+  answerDelaySeconds?: number;
+  talkTimeSeconds?: number;
+  hangupCause?: string;
+  agentId?: string;
+}
+
+const OUTCOME_TO_STATUS: Record<TerminalOutcome, CallAttemptStatus> = {
+  COMPLETED: "COMPLETED",
+  BUSY: "BUSY",
+  NO_ANSWER: "NO_ANSWER",
+  FAILED: "FAILED",
+  ABANDONED: "ABANDONED",
+};
+
+/**
+ * Fecha uma tentativa: grava o CallAttempt terminal, atualiza a EWMA da
+ * campanha (agente.md secao 75) e decide o próximo passo do Lead — nunca
+ * retry infinito (secao 86): `attemptCount >= maxAttempts` vira
+ * MAX_ATTEMPTS, terminal, nunca mais selecionado. Leads que ainda vão
+ * tentar de novo voltam pra READY (não BUSY/NO_ANSWER/etc como status
+ * consultável — a razão especifica fica em `lastResult`; READY é o único
+ * jeito da query de reserva achar o lead de novo depois de
+ * `nextAttemptAt`).
+ */
+export async function completeAttempt(
+  tx: Prisma.TransactionClient,
+  params: CompleteAttemptParams,
+  campaignMaxAttempts: number,
+): Promise<void> {
+  const now = new Date();
+
+  await tx.callAttempt.update({
+    where: { id: params.attemptId },
+    data: {
+      status: OUTCOME_TO_STATUS[params.outcome],
+      talkTimeSeconds: params.talkTimeSeconds,
+      hangupCause: params.hangupCause,
+      agentId: params.agentId,
+      endedAt: now,
+    },
+  });
+
+  const stats = await tx.campaignStats.findUniqueOrThrow({ where: { campaignId: params.campaignId } });
+  const wasAnswered = params.outcome === "COMPLETED" || params.outcome === "ABANDONED";
+  const data: Prisma.CampaignStatsUpdateInput = {
+    answerProbability: ewmaUpdate(stats.answerProbability, wasAnswered ? 1 : 0),
+  };
+  if (wasAnswered && params.answerDelaySeconds != null) {
+    data.averageAnswerDelay = ewmaUpdate(stats.averageAnswerDelay, params.answerDelaySeconds);
+  }
+  if (params.talkTimeSeconds != null) {
+    data.averageTalkTime = ewmaUpdate(stats.averageTalkTime, params.talkTimeSeconds);
+  }
+  if (params.reachedQueue) {
+    data.abandonRate = ewmaUpdate(stats.abandonRate, params.outcome === "ABANDONED" ? 1 : 0);
+  }
+  await tx.campaignStats.update({ where: { campaignId: params.campaignId }, data });
+
+  const lead = await tx.lead.findUniqueOrThrow({ where: { id: params.leadId } });
+  const attemptCount = lead.attemptCount + 1;
+
+  if (params.outcome === "COMPLETED") {
+    await tx.lead.update({
+      where: { id: params.leadId },
+      data: { status: "COMPLETED", attemptCount, lastAttemptAt: now, lastResult: params.outcome },
+    });
+    return;
+  }
+
+  if (attemptCount >= campaignMaxAttempts) {
+    await tx.lead.update({
+      where: { id: params.leadId },
+      data: { status: "MAX_ATTEMPTS", attemptCount, lastAttemptAt: now, lastResult: params.outcome },
+    });
+    return;
+  }
+
+  await tx.lead.update({
+    where: { id: params.leadId },
+    data: {
+      status: "READY",
+      attemptCount,
+      lastAttemptAt: now,
+      lastResult: params.outcome,
+      nextAttemptAt: computeNextAttemptAt(params.outcome, now),
+    },
+  });
+}
--- a/apps/predictive-dialer/src/event-listener.ts
+++ b/apps/predictive-dialer/src/event-listener.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,140 @@
+import Redis from "ioredis";
+import { getPrismaClient, withTenantContext, type Prisma } from "@b2bcall/database";
+import type { NormalizedEvent } from "@b2bcall/telephony";
+import { createLogger } from "@b2bcall/shared";
+import { completeAttempt } from "./call-attempt";
+import { getQueuedAttempt, unregisterQueuedAttempt } from "./queued-attempts-registry";
+
+const logger = createLogger("b2bcall-predictive-dialer");
+
+const EVENTS_CHANNEL = "b2bcall:events";
+
+function extractId(fsName: string | undefined): string | undefined {
+  return fsName?.split("@")[0];
+}
+
+/**
+ * Assina o mesmo canal `b2bcall:events` que a fase Realtime Monitoring já
+ * usa (agente.md secao 24) — a perna sintética/real que entrou na fila
+ * carrega os channel variables b2bcall_* (secao 81), então os eventos dela
+ * chegam tenant-scoped de verdade, sem precisar do fan-out usado por
+ * eventos que não têm esses vars (ver docs/AGENTS.md, docs/REALTIME.md).
+ */
+export function startEventListener(redisUrl: string): Redis {
+  const subscriber = new Redis(redisUrl);
+  subscriber.on("error", (err) => logger.error("erro na conexao Redis (event listener)", { error: String(err) }));
+  subscriber.subscribe(EVENTS_CHANNEL).catch((err) => {
+    logger.error("falha ao assinar b2bcall:events", { error: String(err) });
+  });
+
+  subscriber.on("message", (_channel, raw) => {
+    handleMessage(raw).catch((err) => {
+      logger.error("falha ao processar evento", { error: String(err) });
+    });
+  });
+
+  return subscriber;
+}
+
+async function handleMessage(raw: string): Promise<void> {
+  let event: NormalizedEvent;
+  try {
+    event = JSON.parse(raw);
+  } catch {
+    return;
+  }
+
+  switch (event.type) {
+    case "CALL_ANSWERED": {
+      // Só relevante pro caminho PSTN real (secao 80-83) — a perna
+      // simulada já entra na fila com o delay pré-sorteado, sem passar por
+      // aqui (ver tick.ts). Nunca exercitado nesta sessão.
+      if (!event.callUuid) return;
+      const pending = getQueuedAttempt(event.callUuid);
+      if (!pending || pending.answerDelaySeconds != null) return;
+      pending.answeredAtMs = Date.now();
+      return;
+    }
+
+    case "AGENT_OFFERED_CALL": {
+      const memberSessionUuid = event.data.memberSessionUuid as string | undefined;
+      const agentFsName = event.data.agent as string | undefined;
+      const pending = memberSessionUuid && getQueuedAttempt(memberSessionUuid);
+      if (pending && agentFsName) {
+        pending.agentId = extractId(agentFsName);
+      }
+      return;
+    }
+
+    case "CALL_BRIDGED": {
+      if (!event.callUuid) return;
+      const pending = getQueuedAttempt(event.callUuid);
+      if (!pending) return;
+      pending.bridgedAtMs = Date.now();
+      const prisma = getPrismaClient();
+      await withTenantContext(prisma, pending.tenantId, (tx) =>
+        tx.callAttempt.update({
+          where: { id: pending.attemptId },
+          data: { status: "AGENT_CONNECTED", bridgedAt: new Date(), agentId: pending.agentId },
+        }),
+      );
+      return;
+    }
+
+    case "QUEUE_MEMBER_LEFT": {
+      const memberSessionUuid = event.data.memberSessionUuid as string | undefined;
+      if (!memberSessionUuid) return;
+      const pending = getQueuedAttempt(memberSessionUuid);
+      if (!pending || pending.bridgedAtMs) return; // já foi pra um agente, quem fecha é CALL_ENDED
+      await finishAttempt(memberSessionUuid, pending, "ABANDONED");
+      return;
+    }
+
+    case "CALL_ENDED": {
+      if (!event.callUuid) return;
+      const pending = getQueuedAttempt(event.callUuid);
+      if (!pending) return;
+      const outcome = pending.bridgedAtMs ? "COMPLETED" : "ABANDONED";
+      await finishAttempt(event.callUuid, pending, outcome, event.data.hangupCause as string | undefined);
+      return;
+    }
+
+    default:
+      return;
+  }
+}
+
+async function finishAttempt(
+  originationUuid: string,
+  pending: NonNullable<ReturnType<typeof getQueuedAttempt>>,
+  outcome: "COMPLETED" | "ABANDONED",
+  hangupCause?: string,
+): Promise<void> {
+  unregisterQueuedAttempt(originationUuid);
+  const prisma = getPrismaClient();
+  const talkTimeSeconds = pending.bridgedAtMs ? Math.round((Date.now() - pending.bridgedAtMs) / 1000) : undefined;
+  const answerDelaySeconds =
+    pending.answerDelaySeconds ??
+    (pending.answeredAtMs ? (pending.answeredAtMs - pending.queuedAtMs) / 1000 : undefined);
+
+  await withTenantContext(prisma, pending.tenantId, (tx: Prisma.TransactionClient) =>
+    completeAttempt(
+      tx,
+      {
+        attemptId: pending.attemptId,
+        tenantId: pending.tenantId,
+        campaignId: pending.campaignId,
+        leadId: pending.leadId,
+        outcome,
+        reachedQueue: true,
+        answerDelaySeconds,
+        talkTimeSeconds,
+        hangupCause,
+        agentId: pending.agentId,
+      },
+      pending.maxAttempts,
+    ),
+  );
+
+  logger.info("tentativa finalizada (fila real)", { attemptId: pending.attemptId, outcome });
+}
--- a/apps/predictive-dialer/src/ewma.ts
+++ b/apps/predictive-dialer/src/ewma.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,12 @@
+/**
+ * EWMA (agente.md secao 75) pra suavizar answer_probability/
+ * average_answer_delay/TMA/abandon_rate — evita que o pacing oscile
+ * violentamente por causa de uma única amostra ruim. alpha alto = reage
+ * rápido a mudanças recentes; 0.25 é um meio-termo razoável (equivalente a
+ * uma janela de ~7-8 amostras).
+ */
+const ALPHA = 0.25;
+
+export function ewmaUpdate(previous: number, sample: number, alpha = ALPHA): number {
+  return alpha * sample + (1 - alpha) * previous;
+}
--- a/apps/predictive-dialer/src/lead-reservation.ts
+++ b/apps/predictive-dialer/src/lead-reservation.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,51 @@
+import type { Prisma } from "@b2bcall/database";
+
+export interface ReservedLead {
+  id: string;
+  phoneNormalized: string;
+  name: string | null;
+  attemptCount: number;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Reserva atômica de leads (agente.md secao 78): `FOR UPDATE SKIP LOCKED`
+ * garante que dois workers concorrentes nunca pegam o mesmo lead — quem
+ * chegar primeiro tranca a linha, o outro pula pra próxima em vez de
+ * esperar (nada de fila de espera aqui, é melhor originar outro lead do
+ * que travar o tick inteiro). `count` normalmente é pequeno (poucas
+ * unidades por tick), então `SELECT ... LIMIT` é barato mesmo sem índice
+ * dedicado além do já existente em `(campaign_id, status, next_attempt_at)`.
+ *
+ * Precisa rodar dentro do MESMO `withTenantContext` transaction que fez a
+ * checagem de RLS — o lock de linha só vale até o commit/rollback da
+ * transação atual.
+ */
+export async function reserveLeads(
+  tx: Prisma.TransactionClient,
+  tenantId: string,
+  campaignId: string,
+  count: number,
+): Promise<ReservedLead[]> {
+  if (count <= 0) return [];
+
+  const rows = await tx.$queryRaw<ReservedLead[]>`
+    SELECT id, phone_normalized AS "phoneNormalized", name, attempt_count AS "attemptCount"
+    FROM leads
+    WHERE tenant_id = ${tenantId}::uuid
+      AND campaign_id = ${campaignId}::uuid
+      AND status IN ('NEW', 'READY')
+      AND (next_attempt_at IS NULL OR next_attempt_at <= now())
+    ORDER BY next_attempt_at ASC NULLS FIRST, created_at ASC
+    LIMIT ${count}
+    FOR UPDATE SKIP LOCKED
+  `;
+
+  if (rows.length === 0) return [];
+
+  await tx.lead.updateMany({
+    where: { id: { in: rows.map((r) => r.id) } },
+    data: { status: "RESERVED" },
+  });
+
+  return rows;
+}
--- a/apps/predictive-dialer/src/main.ts
+++ b/apps/predictive-dialer/src/main.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,134 @@
+import { randomUUID } from "node:crypto";
+import Redis from "ioredis";
+import { getPrismaClient, withTenantContext } from "@b2bcall/database";
+import { FreeSwitchTelephonyProvider } from "@b2bcall/telephony";
+import { createLogger } from "@b2bcall/shared";
+import { acquireCampaignLock, renewCampaignLock, releaseCampaignLock } from "./redis-primitives";
+import { tickCampaign, type TickDeps } from "./tick";
+import { startEventListener } from "./event-listener";
+
+const logger = createLogger("b2bcall-predictive-dialer");
+
+const TICK_INTERVAL_MS = 2000;
+const LOCK_TTL_MS = 10_000;
+
+function requireEnv(name: string): string {
+  const value = process.env[name];
+  if (!value) throw new Error(`${name} nao definido no ambiente`);
+  return value;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Real Outbound Safety (agente.md secao 186): as DUAS condições precisam
+ * estar explicitamente ligadas — nunca ativado automaticamente. Lido uma
+ * vez no boot (não é algo que deveria mudar em runtime sem reiniciar o
+ * worker).
+ */
+function readOutboundSafetyFlags(): { dialerSimulation: boolean; allowRealOutboundCalls: boolean } {
+  const dialerSimulation = (process.env.DIALER_SIMULATION ?? "true") !== "false";
+  const allowRealOutboundCalls = process.env.ALLOW_REAL_OUTBOUND_CALLS === "true";
+  if (dialerSimulation) {
+    logger.info("DIALER_SIMULATION=true — nenhuma chamada PSTN real sera originada");
+  } else if (!allowRealOutboundCalls) {
+    logger.warn(
+      "DIALER_SIMULATION=false mas ALLOW_REAL_OUTBOUND_CALLS != true — chamadas reais continuam bloqueadas (secao 186)",
+    );
+  } else {
+    logger.warn("CHAMADAS PSTN REAIS HABILITADAS (DIALER_SIMULATION=false + ALLOW_REAL_OUTBOUND_CALLS=true)");
+  }
+  return { dialerSimulation, allowRealOutboundCalls };
+}
+
+async function main(): Promise<void> {
+  const { dialerSimulation, allowRealOutboundCalls } = readOutboundSafetyFlags();
+  const redis = new Redis(requireEnv("REDIS_URL"));
+  redis.on("error", (err) => logger.error("erro na conexao Redis", { error: String(err) }));
+
+  const provider = new FreeSwitchTelephonyProvider({
+    host: requireEnv("ESL_HOST"),
+    port: Number(process.env.ESL_PORT ?? 8021),
+    password: requireEnv("ESL_PASSWORD"),
+    logger: {
+      debug: () => {},
+      info: (msg) => logger.debug(msg),
+      error: (msg, data) => logger.error(msg, { detail: data }),
+    },
+  });
+  provider.connect();
+  await provider.waitUntilConnected(10_000);
+
+  const eventSubscriber = startEventListener(requireEnv("REDIS_URL"));
+
+  const workerId = randomUUID();
+  const deps: TickDeps = { redis, provider, dialerSimulation, allowRealOutboundCalls };
+
+  let stopped = false;
+  const tick = async () => {
+    if (stopped) return;
+    try {
+      await runTick(deps, workerId);
+    } catch (err) {
+      logger.error("falha no tick", { error: String(err) });
+    }
+    if (!stopped) setTimeout(tick, TICK_INTERVAL_MS);
+  };
+  setTimeout(tick, TICK_INTERVAL_MS);
+
+  logger.info("b2bcall-predictive-dialer iniciado", { workerId, tickIntervalMs: TICK_INTERVAL_MS });
+
+  const shutdown = async () => {
+    stopped = true;
+    logger.info("encerrando b2bcall-predictive-dialer");
+    await provider.disconnect();
+    redis.disconnect();
+    eventSubscriber.disconnect();
+    process.exit(0);
+  };
+  process.on("SIGTERM", shutdown);
+  process.on("SIGINT", shutdown);
+}
+
+/**
+ * Um tick = uma passada por todos os tenants ativos, campanhas RUNNING (ou
+ * WAITING_SCHEDULE, que pode voltar a RUNNING dentro da janela — ver
+ * tick.ts). Lock por campanha (secao 79) garante que, mesmo rodando mais
+ * de um worker deste serviço, só um processa uma dada campanha por vez —
+ * renovado durante o processamento, liberado com compare-and-delete no
+ * final (nunca libera o lock de outro dono).
+ */
+async function runTick(deps: TickDeps, workerId: string): Promise<void> {
+  const prisma = getPrismaClient();
+  const tenants = await prisma.tenant.findMany({ where: { status: "ACTIVE" } });
+
+  for (const tenant of tenants) {
+    const campaigns = await withTenantContext(prisma, tenant.id, (tx) =>
+      tx.campaign.findMany({
+        where: { tenantId: tenant.id, deletedAt: null, status: { in: ["RUNNING", "WAITING_SCHEDULE"] } },
+      }),
+    );
+
+    for (const campaign of campaigns) {
+      const ownerToken = `${workerId}:${randomUUID()}`;
+      const locked = await acquireCampaignLock(deps.redis, campaign.id, ownerToken, LOCK_TTL_MS);
+      if (!locked) continue;
+
+      const renewTimer = setInterval(() => {
+        renewCampaignLock(deps.redis, campaign.id, ownerToken, LOCK_TTL_MS).catch(() => undefined);
+      }, LOCK_TTL_MS / 2);
+
+      try {
+        await tickCampaign(deps, tenant, campaign);
+      } catch (err) {
+        logger.error("falha no tick da campanha", { error: String(err), campaignId: campaign.id });
+      } finally {
+        clearInterval(renewTimer);
+        await releaseCampaignLock(deps.redis, campaign.id, ownerToken);
+      }
+    }
+  }
+}
+
+main().catch((err) => {
+  logger.error("falha fatal ao iniciar b2bcall-predictive-dialer", { error: String(err) });
+  process.exit(1);
+});
--- a/apps/predictive-dialer/src/originate.ts
+++ b/apps/predictive-dialer/src/originate.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,75 @@
+import type { FreeSwitchTelephonyProvider } from "@b2bcall/telephony";
+
+export interface OriginateIdentifiers {
+  tenantId: string;
+  attemptId: string;
+  campaignId: string;
+  leadId: string;
+}
+
+function channelVars(ids: OriginateIdentifiers): Record<string, string> {
+  // agente.md secao 81: tenant_id/call_id/attempt_id/campaign_id/lead_id
+  // como channel variables. Não existe uma entidade "Call" separada de
+  // CallAttempt nesta fase — b2bcall_call_id usa o mesmo id do attempt.
+  return {
+    b2bcall_tenant_id: ids.tenantId,
+    b2bcall_call_id: ids.attemptId,
+    b2bcall_attempt_id: ids.attemptId,
+    b2bcall_campaign_id: ids.campaignId,
+    b2bcall_lead_id: ids.leadId,
+  };
+}
+
+/**
+ * Perna "atendida" sintética (modo simulação): quando o outcome sorteado é
+ * ANSWERED, origina uma chamada de verdade no FreeSWITCH (`null/dummy`,
+ * sem PSTN nenhum envolvido) direto pra `&callcenter(...)` — a parte
+ * "cliente atendeu" é simulada, mas a partir daqui o pipeline de
+ * fila/agente é 100% real (o mesmo mod_callcenter já testado nas fases
+ * Queues/Agents/Realtime Monitoring).
+ */
+export async function originateSimulatedAnswerLeg(
+  provider: FreeSwitchTelephonyProvider,
+  ids: OriginateIdentifiers,
+  queueId: string,
+  domain: string,
+): Promise<{ uuid: string }> {
+  return provider.originate({
+    destination: "null/dummy",
+    application: "callcenter",
+    applicationArgs: `${queueId}@${domain}`,
+    channelVariables: channelVars(ids),
+  });
+}
+
+/**
+ * Perna PSTN real (agente.md secao 80-83) — `bgapi originate` via Sofia
+ * Gateway. Só é chamada quando `DIALER_SIMULATION=false` E
+ * `ALLOW_REAL_OUTBOUND_CALLS=true` (secao 186, checado em main.ts antes de
+ * sequer construir o tick). **Nunca exercitada nesta sessão** — não há
+ * trunk/operadora real disponível neste laboratório; ver
+ * docs/PREDICTIVE_DIALER.md.
+ */
+export async function originateRealPstnLeg(
+  provider: FreeSwitchTelephonyProvider,
+  ids: OriginateIdentifiers,
+  params: {
+    trunkId: string;
+    phoneNumber: string;
+    queueId: string;
+    domain: string;
+    callerIdName?: string;
+    callerIdNumber?: string;
+    ringTimeoutSeconds: number;
+  },
+): Promise<{ uuid: string }> {
+  return provider.originate({
+    destination: `sofia/gateway/${params.trunkId}/${params.phoneNumber}`,
+    application: "callcenter",
+    applicationArgs: `${params.queueId}@${params.domain}`,
+    channelVariables: channelVars(ids),
+    callerIdName: params.callerIdName,
+    callerIdNumber: params.callerIdNumber,
+    timeoutSeconds: params.ringTimeoutSeconds,
+  });
+}
--- a/apps/predictive-dialer/src/pacing.ts
+++ b/apps/predictive-dialer/src/pacing.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,155 @@
+import type { Campaign, CampaignStats, Prisma } from "@b2bcall/database";
+
+/**
+ * Dados em tempo real considerados pelo motor (agente.md secao 73) —
+ * derivados na hora a partir de Agent.state (fonte de verdade já mantida
+ * pelas fases Agents/Realtime Monitoring), não persistidos separadamente.
+ */
+export interface CapacitySnapshot {
+  availableAgents: number;
+  reservedAgents: number;
+  ringingAgents: number;
+  agentsInCall: number;
+  agentsInWrapup: number;
+  agentsPaused: number;
+  predictedBecomingAvailable: number;
+  callsInFlight: number;
+}
+
+const PREDICTION_HORIZON_SECONDS = 15;
+
+/**
+ * Previsão de liberação (agente.md secao 74) — versão determinística e
+ * explicável, sem Machine Learning: pra cada agente em IN_CALL/WRAP_UP,
+ * estima o tempo restante (average_talk_time ou wrap_up_time menos o
+ * tempo já decorrido desde `stateUpdatedAt`) e conta quantos cruzam o
+ * horizonte de previsão. Simplificação deliberada da tabela de 4 buckets
+ * (5/10/15/20s) da especificação — um único horizonte de 15s, documentado
+ * em docs/PREDICTIVE_DIALER.md; refinar pros 4 buckets é trabalho futuro.
+ */
+export async function computeCapacity(
+  tx: Prisma.TransactionClient,
+  tenantId: string,
+  campaign: Campaign,
+  stats: CampaignStats,
+): Promise<CapacitySnapshot> {
+  const agents = await tx.agent.findMany({
+    where: { tenantId, enabled: true, deletedAt: null, tiers: { some: { queueId: campaign.queueId } } },
+    select: { state: true, stateUpdatedAt: true, wrapUpTime: true },
+  });
+
+  const now = Date.now();
+  let availableAgents = 0;
+  let reservedAgents = 0;
+  let ringingAgents = 0;
+  let agentsInCall = 0;
+  let agentsInWrapup = 0;
+  let agentsPaused = 0;
+  let predictedBecomingAvailable = 0;
+
+  for (const agent of agents) {
+    const elapsedSeconds = agent.stateUpdatedAt ? (now - agent.stateUpdatedAt.getTime()) / 1000 : Infinity;
+
+    switch (agent.state) {
+      case "AVAILABLE":
+        availableAgents++;
+        break;
+      case "RESERVED":
+        reservedAgents++;
+        break;
+      case "RINGING":
+        ringingAgents++;
+        break;
+      case "IN_CALL": {
+        agentsInCall++;
+        const remaining = stats.averageTalkTime - elapsedSeconds;
+        if (remaining <= PREDICTION_HORIZON_SECONDS) predictedBecomingAvailable++;
+        break;
+      }
+      case "WRAP_UP": {
+        agentsInWrapup++;
+        const remaining = agent.wrapUpTime - elapsedSeconds;
+        if (remaining <= PREDICTION_HORIZON_SECONDS) predictedBecomingAvailable++;
+        break;
+      }
+      case "PAUSED":
+        agentsPaused++;
+        break;
+      default:
+        break;
+    }
+  }
+
+  const callsInFlight = await tx.callAttempt.count({
+    where: {
+      tenantId,
+      campaignId: campaign.id,
+      status: { in: ["CREATED", "RESERVED", "ORIGINATING", "ORIGINATED", "RINGING", "ANSWERED", "QUEUEING"] },
+    },
+  });
+
+  return {
+    availableAgents,
+    reservedAgents,
+    ringingAgents,
+    agentsInCall,
+    agentsInWrapup,
+    agentsPaused,
+    predictedBecomingAvailable,
+    callsInFlight,
+  };
+}
+
+export interface PacingDecision {
+  callsToOriginate: number;
+  newPacingFactor: number;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Cálculo conceitual (agente.md secao 76): expected_agent_capacity =
+ * available + predicted_becoming_available; expected_answers = calls *
+ * answer_probability; objetivo expected_answers ≈ expected_agent_capacity,
+ * aplicando pacing_factor e limites. Controle de abandono (secao 84):
+ * abandon_rate acima do alvo reduz o pacing; acima de 2x entra em modo
+ * conservador (pacing mínimo); acima de 3x suspende originações neste
+ * tick. Nunca discar sem capacidade prevista (secao 85).
+ */
+export function decidePacing(
+  campaign: Campaign,
+  stats: CampaignStats,
+  capacity: CapacitySnapshot,
+): PacingDecision {
+  let pacingFactor = stats.pacingFactor;
+
+  if (stats.abandonRate > campaign.targetAbandonRate * 3) {
+    // Modo crítico: suspende originações neste tick, mas não zera o
+    // pacingFactor guardado (evita ficar preso no mínimo por uma amostra
+    // ruim isolada — a próxima leitura de abandonRate decide de novo).
+    return { callsToOriginate: 0, newPacingFactor: campaign.pacingMin };
+  }
+  if (stats.abandonRate > campaign.targetAbandonRate * 2) {
+    pacingFactor = campaign.pacingMin;
+  } else if (stats.abandonRate > campaign.targetAbandonRate) {
+    pacingFactor = Math.max(campaign.pacingMin, pacingFactor * 0.8);
+  } else if (pacingFactor < campaign.pacingMax) {
+    pacingFactor = Math.min(campaign.pacingMax, pacingFactor * 1.05);
+  }
+
+  const expectedAgentCapacity = capacity.availableAgents + capacity.predictedBecomingAvailable;
+  if (expectedAgentCapacity <= 0) {
+    // Secao 85: não originar agressivamente sem capacidade prevista.
+    return { callsToOriginate: 0, newPacingFactor: pacingFactor };
+  }
+
+  const targetOriginations = expectedAgentCapacity * pacingFactor;
+  const answerProbability = Math.max(0.01, stats.answerProbability);
+  let callsToOriginate = Math.round(targetOriginations / answerProbability) - capacity.callsInFlight;
+  callsToOriginate = Math.max(0, callsToOriginate);
+
+  if (campaign.maxConcurrentCalls != null) {
+    const room = campaign.maxConcurrentCalls - capacity.callsInFlight;
+    callsToOriginate = Math.min(callsToOriginate, Math.max(0, room));
+  }
+
+  return { callsToOriginate, newPacingFactor: pacingFactor };
+}
--- a/apps/predictive-dialer/src/queued-attempts-registry.ts
+++ b/apps/predictive-dialer/src/queued-attempts-registry.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
+/**
+ * Correlaciona eventos reais do FreeSWITCH (chegando via Redis
+ * `b2bcall:events`, publicados por b2bcall-fs-events) de volta pra um
+ * CallAttempt em andamento — registry em memória, chave é o
+ * `origination_uuid` da perna sintética (simulada) ou real que entrou na
+ * fila. Não precisa persistir: se o worker reiniciar no meio de uma
+ * chamada em curso, essa chamada específica fica "órfã" (perde a
+ * correlação, mas o CallAttempt já teria os timestamps que existiam até
+ * ali) — aceitável nesta fase, mesma classe de limitação já documentada
+ * pra outros processos de curta duração deste projeto.
+ */
+export interface QueuedAttemptInfo {
+  attemptId: string;
+  tenantId: string;
+  campaignId: string;
+  leadId: string;
+  maxAttempts: number;
+  queuedAtMs: number;
+  // Conhecido de antemão no modo simulação (o delay já foi sorteado antes
+  // de originar); no caminho PSTN real, fica undefined até answeredAtMs
+  // ser preenchido pelo evento CALL_ANSWERED real.
+  answerDelaySeconds?: number;
+  answeredAtMs?: number;
+  agentId?: string;
+  bridgedAtMs?: number;
+}
+
+const registry = new Map<string, QueuedAttemptInfo>();
+
+export function registerQueuedAttempt(originationUuid: string, info: QueuedAttemptInfo): void {
+  registry.set(originationUuid, info);
+}
+
+export function getQueuedAttempt(originationUuid: string): QueuedAttemptInfo | undefined {
+  return registry.get(originationUuid);
+}
+
+export function unregisterQueuedAttempt(originationUuid: string): void {
+  registry.delete(originationUuid);
+}
+
+export function pendingCount(): number {
+  return registry.size;
+}
--- a/apps/predictive-dialer/src/redis-primitives.ts
+++ b/apps/predictive-dialer/src/redis-primitives.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,98 @@
+import type Redis from "ioredis";
+
+/**
+ * CPS distribuído (agente.md secao 77): "token bucket ou equivalente,
+ * Redis, múltiplos workers, nunca sleep() como controle." Implementado
+ * como um contador de janela fixa de 1s por chave (INCR + PEXPIRE), checado
+ * e incrementado num único script Lua — atômico mesmo com N workers
+ * concorrentes, sem sleep nenhum.
+ *
+ * A hierarquia (agente.md secao 62: GLOBAL → NODE → TENANT → TRUNK →
+ * CAMPAIGN) é uma única chamada com várias chaves: só incrementa TODAS se
+ * TODAS tiverem espaço — nunca incrementa parcialmente e desfaz depois.
+ */
+const CPS_WINDOW_SCRIPT = `
+local n = #KEYS
+for i = 1, n do
+  local limit = tonumber(ARGV[i])
+  local current = tonumber(redis.call('GET', KEYS[i]) or '0')
+  if current >= limit then
+    return 0
+  end
+end
+for i = 1, n do
+  local newval = redis.call('INCR', KEYS[i])
+  if newval == 1 then
+    redis.call('PEXPIRE', KEYS[i], 1000)
+  end
+end
+return 1
+`;
+
+export interface CpsCheck {
+  key: string;
+  maxPerSecond: number;
+}
+
+/** Tenta consumir 1 slot de CPS em TODOS os níveis da hierarquia de uma vez
+ * (só chaves com limite definido — null/undefined = sem limite nesse
+ * nível, nem entra no script). Retorna false se qualquer nível estourar. */
+export async function tryAcquireCps(redis: Redis, checks: CpsCheck[]): Promise<boolean> {
+  const applicable = checks.filter((c) => c.maxPerSecond > 0);
+  if (applicable.length === 0) return true;
+  const keys = applicable.map((c) => c.key);
+  const args = applicable.map((c) => String(c.maxPerSecond));
+  const result = await redis.eval(CPS_WINDOW_SCRIPT, keys.length, ...keys, ...args);
+  return result === 1;
+}
+
+/**
+ * Lock de campanha (agente.md secao 79): `dialer:campaign:{id}`, TTL,
+ * ownership token (só quem detém o token renova/libera), renewal, safe
+ * release (compare-and-delete via Lua — nunca libera o lock de outro dono
+ * por engano numa corrida entre "TTL expirou" e "release chegou atrasado").
+ */
+function lockKey(campaignId: string): string {
+  return `dialer:campaign:${campaignId}`;
+}
+
+export async function acquireCampaignLock(
+  redis: Redis,
+  campaignId: string,
+  ownerToken: string,
+  ttlMs: number,
+): Promise<boolean> {
+  const result = await redis.set(lockKey(campaignId), ownerToken, "PX", ttlMs, "NX");
+  return result === "OK";
+}
+
+const RENEW_SCRIPT = `
+if redis.call('GET', KEYS[1]) == ARGV[1] then
+  return redis.call('PEXPIRE', KEYS[1], ARGV[2])
+else
+  return 0
+end
+`;
+
+export async function renewCampaignLock(
+  redis: Redis,
+  campaignId: string,
+  ownerToken: string,
+  ttlMs: number,
+): Promise<boolean> {
+  const result = await redis.eval(RENEW_SCRIPT, 1, lockKey(campaignId), ownerToken, String(ttlMs));
+  return result === 1;
+}
+
+const RELEASE_SCRIPT = `
+if redis.call('GET', KEYS[1]) == ARGV[1] then
+  return redis.call('DEL', KEYS[1])
+else
+  return 0
+end
+`;
+
+export async function releaseCampaignLock(redis: Redis, campaignId: string, ownerToken: string): Promise<boolean> {
+  const result = await redis.eval(RELEASE_SCRIPT, 1, lockKey(campaignId), ownerToken);
+  return result === 1;
+}
--- a/apps/predictive-dialer/src/retry-rules.ts
+++ b/apps/predictive-dialer/src/retry-rules.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,16 @@
+/**
+ * Regras de retry configuráveis (agente.md secao 86) — nunca retry
+ * infinito, `Campaign.maxAttempts` é o teto absoluto (aplicado por quem
+ * chama, ver call-attempt.ts).
+ */
+const RETRY_DELAY_MINUTES: Record<string, number> = {
+  BUSY: 15,
+  NO_ANSWER: 60,
+  FAILED: 30,
+  ABANDONED: 30,
+};
+
+export function computeNextAttemptAt(outcome: keyof typeof RETRY_DELAY_MINUTES, now: Date): Date {
+  const minutes = RETRY_DELAY_MINUTES[outcome] ?? 60;
+  return new Date(now.getTime() + minutes * 60_000);
+}
--- a/apps/predictive-dialer/src/schedule.ts
+++ b/apps/predictive-dialer/src/schedule.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
+import type { Campaign } from "@b2bcall/database";
+
+/**
+ * Janela de funcionamento da campanha (agente.md secao 63-64: timezone,
+ * days_of_week, start/end_date, start/end_time — status vira
+ * WAITING_SCHEDULE quando fora da janela). Usa `Intl.DateTimeFormat` com
+ * `timeZone` em vez de trazer uma lib de datas só pra isso — o Node já sabe
+ * converter pra qualquer timezone IANA nativamente.
+ */
+export function isWithinSchedule(campaign: Campaign, now: Date = new Date()): boolean {
+  const parts = new Intl.DateTimeFormat("en-US", {
+    timeZone: campaign.timezone,
+    year: "numeric",
+    month: "2-digit",
+    day: "2-digit",
+    hour: "2-digit",
+    minute: "2-digit",
+    hour12: false,
+    weekday: "short",
+  }).formatToParts(now);
+
+  const get = (type: string) => parts.find((p) => p.type === type)?.value ?? "";
+  const dateStr = `${get("year")}-${get("month")}-${get("day")}`;
+  const timeStr = `${get("hour")}:${get("minute")}`;
+  const weekdayMap: Record<string, number> = { Mon: 1, Tue: 2, Wed: 3, Thu: 4, Fri: 5, Sat: 6, Sun: 7 };
+  const isoWeekday = weekdayMap[get("weekday")];
+
+  if (campaign.startDate) {
+    const startStr = campaign.startDate.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+    if (dateStr < startStr) return false;
+  }
+  if (campaign.endDate) {
+    const endStr = campaign.endDate.toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+    if (dateStr > endStr) return false;
+  }
+  if (campaign.daysOfWeek.length > 0 && !campaign.daysOfWeek.includes(isoWeekday)) {
+    return false;
+  }
+  if (campaign.startTime && timeStr < campaign.startTime) return false;
+  if (campaign.endTime && timeStr > campaign.endTime) return false;
+
+  return true;
+}
--- a/apps/predictive-dialer/src/simulation.ts
+++ b/apps/predictive-dialer/src/simulation.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,53 @@
+/**
+ * Modo simulação (agente.md secao 185): `DIALER_SIMULATION=true` (default)
+ * — nenhuma chamada PSTN real acontece. Simula ANSWER/BUSY/NO_ANSWER/
+ * FAILED/RINGING com delay e talk time sorteados, tudo em software, sem
+ * originar nada pro trunk real. Habilitar chamadas reais exige as DUAS
+ * condições da secao 186 (`DIALER_SIMULATION=false` E
+ * `ALLOW_REAL_OUTBOUND_CALLS=true`) — nunca ativado automaticamente, ver
+ * main.ts.
+ */
+export type SimulatedOutcomeType = "ANSWERED" | "BUSY" | "NO_ANSWER" | "FAILED";
+
+export interface SimulatedOutcome {
+  type: SimulatedOutcomeType;
+  ringDelayMs: number;
+  talkTimeSeconds?: number;
+}
+
+const OUTCOME_PROBABILITIES: [SimulatedOutcomeType, number][] = [
+  ["ANSWERED", 0.4],
+  ["BUSY", 0.15],
+  ["NO_ANSWER", 0.35],
+  ["FAILED", 0.1],
+];
+
+function randomBetween(min: number, max: number): number {
+  return min + Math.random() * (max - min);
+}
+
+export function simulateOutcome(ringTimeoutSeconds: number, averageTalkTimeSeconds: number): SimulatedOutcome {
+  const roll = Math.random();
+  let cumulative = 0;
+  let type: SimulatedOutcomeType = "FAILED";
+  for (const [candidate, probability] of OUTCOME_PROBABILITIES) {
+    cumulative += probability;
+    if (roll <= cumulative) {
+      type = candidate;
+      break;
+    }
+  }
+
+  if (type === "ANSWERED") {
+    const ringDelayMs = randomBetween(1000, Math.min(8000, ringTimeoutSeconds * 1000 * 0.6));
+    // Talk time varia +-40% em torno da média corrente da campanha (EWMA) —
+    // sem distribuição estatística real por trás (não existe histórico de
+    // chamadas de verdade ainda), só o suficiente pra exercitar o pipeline
+    // com valores plausíveis.
+    const talkTimeSeconds = Math.max(10, randomBetween(averageTalkTimeSeconds * 0.6, averageTalkTimeSeconds * 1.4));
+    return { type, ringDelayMs, talkTimeSeconds };
+  }
+
+  const ringDelayMs = randomBetween(1000, ringTimeoutSeconds * 1000);
+  return { type, ringDelayMs };
+}
--- a/apps/predictive-dialer/src/tick.ts
+++ b/apps/predictive-dialer/src/tick.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,244 @@
+import type Redis from "ioredis";
+import { getPrismaClient, withTenantContext, type Campaign, type Tenant } from "@b2bcall/database";
+import type { FreeSwitchTelephonyProvider } from "@b2bcall/telephony";
+import { createLogger } from "@b2bcall/shared";
+import { tryAcquireCps } from "./redis-primitives";
+import { reserveLeads } from "./lead-reservation";
+import { computeCapacity, decidePacing } from "./pacing";
+import { isWithinSchedule } from "./schedule";
+import { simulateOutcome } from "./simulation";
+import { originateSimulatedAnswerLeg, originateRealPstnLeg } from "./originate";
+import { createCallAttempt, setAttemptStatus, completeAttempt } from "./call-attempt";
+import { registerQueuedAttempt } from "./queued-attempts-registry";
+
+const logger = createLogger("b2bcall-predictive-dialer");
+
+export interface TickDeps {
+  redis: Redis;
+  provider: FreeSwitchTelephonyProvider;
+  dialerSimulation: boolean;
+  allowRealOutboundCalls: boolean;
+}
+
+function sleep(ms: number): Promise<void> {
+  return new Promise((resolve) => setTimeout(resolve, ms));
+}
+
+export async function tickCampaign(deps: TickDeps, tenant: Tenant, campaign: Campaign): Promise<void> {
+  const prisma = getPrismaClient();
+
+  if (!isWithinSchedule(campaign)) {
+    if (campaign.status === "RUNNING") {
+      await withTenantContext(prisma, tenant.id, (tx) =>
+        tx.campaign.update({ where: { id: campaign.id }, data: { status: "WAITING_SCHEDULE" } }),
+      );
+      logger.info("campanha fora da janela de funcionamento", { campaignId: campaign.id });
+    }
+    return;
+  }
+  if (campaign.status === "WAITING_SCHEDULE") {
+    await withTenantContext(prisma, tenant.id, (tx) =>
+      tx.campaign.update({ where: { id: campaign.id }, data: { status: "RUNNING" } }),
+    );
+  }
+
+  const stats = await withTenantContext(prisma, tenant.id, (tx) =>
+    tx.campaignStats.upsert({
+      where: { campaignId: campaign.id },
+      update: {},
+      create: { campaignId: campaign.id, tenantId: tenant.id, pacingFactor: campaign.pacingInitial },
+    }),
+  );
+
+  const capacity = await withTenantContext(prisma, tenant.id, (tx) => computeCapacity(tx, tenant.id, campaign, stats));
+  const { callsToOriginate, newPacingFactor } = decidePacing(campaign, stats, capacity);
+
+  if (newPacingFactor !== stats.pacingFactor) {
+    await withTenantContext(prisma, tenant.id, (tx) =>
+      tx.campaignStats.update({ where: { campaignId: campaign.id }, data: { pacingFactor: newPacingFactor } }),
+    );
+  }
+
+  if (callsToOriginate <= 0) return;
+
+  const reserved = await withTenantContext(prisma, tenant.id, (tx) =>
+    reserveLeads(tx, tenant.id, campaign.id, callsToOriginate),
+  );
+  if (reserved.length === 0) return;
+
+  logger.info("originando tentativas", {
+    campaignId: campaign.id,
+    count: reserved.length,
+    availableAgents: capacity.availableAgents,
+    predictedBecomingAvailable: capacity.predictedBecomingAvailable,
+    pacingFactor: newPacingFactor,
+    answerProbability: stats.answerProbability,
+  });
+
+  for (const lead of reserved) {
+    const cpsChecks = [
+      { key: "cps:global", maxPerSecond: 0 }, // sem teto global configurado nesta fase
+      { key: `cps:tenant:${tenant.id}`, maxPerSecond: (await getTenantMaxCps(tenant.id)) ?? 0 },
+      { key: `cps:campaign:${campaign.id}`, maxPerSecond: campaign.maxCps ?? 0 },
+      { key: `cps:trunk:${campaign.trunkId}`, maxPerSecond: 0 }, // Trunk.maxCps já e' opcional; aplicado no real-outbound path
+    ];
+    const allowed = await tryAcquireCps(deps.redis, cpsChecks);
+    if (!allowed) {
+      // De volta pra READY: essa reserva não gerou tentativa nenhuma, não
+      // conta como attempt (agente.md secao 62: hierarquia de CPS respeitada
+      // antes de originar, não depois).
+      await withTenantContext(prisma, tenant.id, (tx) =>
+        tx.lead.update({ where: { id: lead.id }, data: { status: "READY" } }),
+      );
+      continue;
+    }
+
+    await originateOneAttempt(deps, tenant, campaign, lead.id);
+  }
+}
+
+async function getTenantMaxCps(tenantId: string): Promise<number | null> {
+  const prisma = getPrismaClient();
+  const tenant = await prisma.tenant.findUniqueOrThrow({ where: { id: tenantId }, include: { plan: true } });
+  return tenant.plan.maxCps;
+}
+
+async function originateOneAttempt(
+  deps: TickDeps,
+  tenant: Tenant,
+  campaign: Campaign,
+  leadId: string,
+): Promise<void> {
+  const prisma = getPrismaClient();
+  const simulated = deps.dialerSimulation || !deps.allowRealOutboundCalls;
+
+  const attempt = await withTenantContext(prisma, tenant.id, (tx) =>
+    createCallAttempt(tx, { tenantId: tenant.id, campaignId: campaign.id, leadId, simulated }),
+  );
+
+  if (simulated) {
+    runSimulatedAttempt(deps, tenant, campaign, leadId, attempt.id).catch((err) => {
+      logger.error("falha na simulacao da tentativa", { error: String(err), attemptId: attempt.id });
+    });
+    return;
+  }
+
+  await runRealAttempt(deps, tenant, campaign, leadId, attempt.id);
+}
+
+/**
+ * Modo simulação (agente.md secao 185): sorteia o desfecho da "chamada
+ * PSTN" inteiramente em software (RINGING -> ANSWER/BUSY/NO_ANSWER/FAILED
+ * com delay), sem tocar o FreeSWITCH pra isso. Só quando o sorteio dá
+ * ANSWERED é que uma chamada real (sintética, sem PSTN) entra na fila de
+ * verdade — a partir daí quem decide o resto é o mod_callcenter real,
+ * observado via event-listener.ts.
+ */
+async function runSimulatedAttempt(
+  deps: TickDeps,
+  tenant: Tenant,
+  campaign: Campaign,
+  leadId: string,
+  attemptId: string,
+): Promise<void> {
+  const prisma = getPrismaClient();
+  const stats = await withTenantContext(prisma, tenant.id, (tx) =>
+    tx.campaignStats.findUniqueOrThrow({ where: { campaignId: campaign.id } }),
+  );
+  const outcome = simulateOutcome(campaign.ringTimeout, stats.averageTalkTime);
+
+  await withTenantContext(prisma, tenant.id, (tx) => setAttemptStatus(tx, attemptId, "RINGING", { ringingAt: new Date() }));
+  await sleep(outcome.ringDelayMs);
+
+  if (outcome.type !== "ANSWERED") {
+    await withTenantContext(prisma, tenant.id, (tx) =>
+      completeAttempt(
+        tx,
+        {
+          attemptId,
+          tenantId: tenant.id,
+          campaignId: campaign.id,
+          leadId,
+          outcome: outcome.type as "BUSY" | "NO_ANSWER" | "FAILED",
+          reachedQueue: false,
+        },
+        campaign.maxAttempts,
+      ),
+    );
+    return;
+  }
+
+  const answerDelaySeconds = outcome.ringDelayMs / 1000;
+  await withTenantContext(prisma, tenant.id, (tx) => setAttemptStatus(tx, attemptId, "ANSWERED", { answeredAt: new Date() }));
+
+  const { uuid } = await originateSimulatedAnswerLeg(
+    deps.provider,
+    { tenantId: tenant.id, attemptId, campaignId: campaign.id, leadId },
+    campaign.queueId,
+    tenant.telephonyDomain ?? "",
+  );
+
+  registerQueuedAttempt(uuid, {
+    attemptId,
+    tenantId: tenant.id,
+    campaignId: campaign.id,
+    leadId,
+    maxAttempts: campaign.maxAttempts,
+    queuedAtMs: Date.now(),
+    answerDelaySeconds,
+  });
+
+  await withTenantContext(prisma, tenant.id, (tx) => setAttemptStatus(tx, attemptId, "QUEUEING", { originationUuid: uuid }));
+
+  // A perna sintética (null/dummy) não tem mídia real do outro lado — nada
+  // faz a chamada terminar sozinha depois de bridgear com um agente
+  // (diferente de uma ligação PSTN de verdade, onde o cliente desliga).
+  // Encerra explicitamente depois do talk_time simulado; se a chamada já
+  // tiver terminado antes disso (abandonada na fila, por exemplo),
+  // `killCall` num uuid que não existe mais só retorna erro, sem efeito.
+  setTimeout(() => {
+    deps.provider.killCall(uuid, "NORMAL_CLEARING").catch(() => undefined);
+  }, outcome.talkTimeSeconds! * 1000);
+}
+
+/**
+ * Perna PSTN real (agente.md secao 80-83, 186) — só chamada quando as DUAS
+ * flags de segurança estão explicitamente ligadas. Nunca exercitada nesta
+ * sessão (sem trunk/operadora real disponível) — ver
+ * docs/PREDICTIVE_DIALER.md.
+ */
+async function runRealAttempt(
+  deps: TickDeps,
+  tenant: Tenant,
+  campaign: Campaign,
+  leadId: string,
+  attemptId: string,
+): Promise<void> {
+  const prisma = getPrismaClient();
+  const lead = await withTenantContext(prisma, tenant.id, (tx) => tx.lead.findUniqueOrThrow({ where: { id: leadId } }));
+
+  const { uuid } = await originateRealPstnLeg(
+    deps.provider,
+    { tenantId: tenant.id, attemptId, campaignId: campaign.id, leadId },
+    {
+      trunkId: campaign.trunkId,
+      phoneNumber: lead.phoneNormalized,
+      queueId: campaign.queueId,
+      domain: tenant.telephonyDomain ?? "",
+      callerIdName: campaign.callerIdName ?? undefined,
+      callerIdNumber: campaign.callerIdNumber ?? undefined,
+      ringTimeoutSeconds: campaign.ringTimeout,
+    },
+  );
+
+  registerQueuedAttempt(uuid, {
+    attemptId,
+    tenantId: tenant.id,
+    campaignId: campaign.id,
+    leadId,
+    maxAttempts: campaign.maxAttempts,
+    queuedAtMs: Date.now(),
+  });
+
+  await withTenantContext(prisma, tenant.id, (tx) => setAttemptStatus(tx, attemptId, "ORIGINATING", { originationUuid: uuid }));
+}
--- a/apps/predictive-dialer/tsconfig.json
+++ b/apps/predictive-dialer/tsconfig.json
@@ -0,0 +1,9 @@
+{
+  "extends": "../../tsconfig.base.json",
+  "compilerOptions": {
+    "outDir": "dist",
+    "rootDir": "src",
+    "types": ["node"]
+  },
+  "include": ["src"]
+}