feat: implement predictive dialing engine

- apps/dialer-worker: motor do discador preditivo completo - predictive-engine.ts: EWMA de answerProbability/avgTalkTimeSeconds/ abandonRate, previsao de liberacao de agentes, calculo de quantas chamadas originar. Logica pura, 14 testes unitarios - cps-limiter.ts: token bucket via script Lua atomico no Redis (dois buckets independentes campanha+tronco, min() dos dois, seguro com multiplos workers) - lead-repository.ts: reserva atomica via FOR UPDATE SKIP LOCKED, recuperacao de reservas orfas apos queda de worker - campaign-lock.ts: lock distribuido por campanha (Redis SET NX PX + token de posse, renovacao/liberacao seguras via Lua) - schedule.ts: janela de horario da campanha (timezone real via Intl.DateTimeFormat, dias da semana), 6 testes unitarios - retry-rules.ts: motor de retentativa por causa de encerramento, configuravel por campanha, nunca infinito - simulation.ts + campaign-worker.ts (modo DIALER_SIMULATION): permite testar o motor inteiro sem tronco de operadora real - simulation-harness.ts: reproduz em tempo discreto e deterministico o cenario exato de aceite da secao 66 (20 agentes/10 CPS/30% atendimento/ TMA 180s) — 6 testes validando CPS nunca excedido, concorrencia nunca excedida, pacing nao diverge - campaign-worker.ts: orquestra tudo contra Postgres/Redis/Asterisk reais - docs/PREDICTIVE_DIALER.md: algoritmo documentado, incluindo dois bugs reais encontrados e corrigidos durante o teste do cenario de aceite (concorrencia nao contava chamadas em atendimento; pacing subia sem limite durante periodos ociosos, causando rajada maxima assim que um agente ficava livre) e limitacoes conhecidas (AMD e wrap-up automatico via eventos reais ainda pendentes, documentados sem esconder) Testado ponta a ponta contra containers reais (Postgres/Redis/Asterisk): campanha completa criada -> agente disponivel via API -> leads importados -> campanha iniciada -> reserva atomica -> CPS respeitado -> simulacao de NO_ANSWER (retry agendado) e ANSWERED (AGENT_CONNECTED, EWMA atualizada ao vivo) -> parada sem derrubar chamadas em andamento.
2026-08-27 15:24:31 -03:00
parent 167776ff63
commit 66cc2058fd
24 changed files with 1776 additions and 11 deletions
--- a/apps/dialer-worker/package.json
+++ b/apps/dialer-worker/package.json
@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
+{
+  "name": "@b2bcall/dialer-worker",
+  "version": "0.1.0",
+  "private": true,
+  "main": "dist/main.js",
+  "scripts": {
+    "build": "tsc",
+    "start": "node dist/main.js",
+    "test": "jest"
+  },
+  "dependencies": {
+    "@b2bcall/database": "workspace:*",
+    "@b2bcall/shared": "workspace:*",
+    "@b2bcall/telephony": "workspace:*",
+    "ioredis": "^5.4.2",
+    "pino": "^9.6.0"
+  },
+  "devDependencies": {
+    "@types/jest": "^30.0.0",
+    "@types/node": "^24.0.0",
+    "jest": "^30.0.0",
+    "ts-jest": "^29.2.5",
+    "ts-node": "^10.9.2",
+    "typescript": "^5.7.3"
+  },
+  "jest": {
+    "moduleFileExtensions": ["js", "json", "ts"],
+    "rootDir": "src",
+    "testRegex": ".*\\.spec\\.ts$",
+    "transform": { "^.+\\.(t|j)s$": "ts-jest" },
+    "testEnvironment": "node"
+  }
+}
--- a/apps/dialer-worker/src/campaign-lock.ts
+++ b/apps/dialer-worker/src/campaign-lock.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,53 @@
+import { randomUUID } from 'node:crypto';
+import type Redis from 'ioredis';
+
+// Lock distribuído por campanha (agente.md seção 75) — impede dois workers
+// controlando a mesma campanha simultaneamente. TTL curto + renovação
+// periódica (lease): se o worker morrer, o lock expira sozinho e outro
+// worker assume na próxima rodada.
+const LOCK_TTL_MS = 15_000;
+
+// Só apaga a chave se o valor ainda for o token deste dono — evita que um
+// worker libere um lock que já expirou e foi assumido por outro.
+const RELEASE_SCRIPT = `
+if redis.call("get", KEYS[1]) == ARGV[1] then
+  return redis.call("del", KEYS[1])
+else
+  return 0
+end
+`;
+
+// Só renova o TTL se o valor ainda for o token deste dono.
+const RENEW_SCRIPT = `
+if redis.call("get", KEYS[1]) == ARGV[1] then
+  return redis.call("pexpire", KEYS[1], ARGV[2])
+else
+  return 0
+end
+`;
+
+export class CampaignLock {
+  private readonly token = randomUUID();
+  private readonly key: string;
+
+  constructor(
+    private readonly redis: Redis,
+    campaignId: string,
+  ) {
+    this.key = `dialer:campaign:${campaignId}:lock`;
+  }
+
+  async acquire(): Promise<boolean> {
+    const result = await this.redis.set(this.key, this.token, 'PX', LOCK_TTL_MS, 'NX');
+    return result === 'OK';
+  }
+
+  async renew(): Promise<boolean> {
+    const result = await this.redis.eval(RENEW_SCRIPT, 1, this.key, this.token, LOCK_TTL_MS);
+    return result === 1;
+  }
+
+  async release(): Promise<void> {
+    await this.redis.eval(RELEASE_SCRIPT, 1, this.key, this.token);
+  }
+}
--- a/apps/dialer-worker/src/campaign-worker.ts
+++ b/apps/dialer-worker/src/campaign-worker.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,279 @@
+import { randomUUID } from 'node:crypto';
+import { PrismaClient, CampaignStatus } from '@b2bcall/database';
+import type Redis from 'ioredis';
+import type { TelephonyProvider } from '@b2bcall/telephony';
+import { normalizePhone } from '@b2bcall/shared';
+import { CampaignLock } from './campaign-lock';
+import { CpsLimiter } from './cps-limiter';
+import { LeadRepository } from './lead-repository';
+import { StatsStore } from './stats-store';
+import { isWithinSchedule } from './schedule';
+import { getLiveCounts } from './live-counts';
+import { adjustPacingFactor, calculateCallsToOriginate, updateEwma, type PacingLimits } from './predictive-engine';
+import { calculateNextAttemptAt, leadStatusForOutcome, type HangupOutcome } from './retry-rules';
+import { DEFAULT_SIMULATION_PROFILE, randomInRange, simulateHangupCause } from './simulation';
+import { logger } from './logger';
+
+const WORKER_ID = randomUUID();
+const DIALER_SIMULATION = process.env.DIALER_SIMULATION === 'true';
+
+export class CampaignWorker {
+  private readonly leadRepo: LeadRepository;
+  private readonly cpsLimiter: CpsLimiter;
+  private readonly statsStore: StatsStore;
+
+  constructor(
+    private readonly prisma: PrismaClient,
+    private readonly redis: Redis,
+    private readonly telephony: TelephonyProvider,
+  ) {
+    this.leadRepo = new LeadRepository(prisma);
+    this.cpsLimiter = new CpsLimiter(redis);
+    this.statsStore = new StatsStore(redis);
+  }
+
+  async tick(campaignId: string): Promise<void> {
+    const campaign = await this.prisma.campaign.findUnique({ where: { id: campaignId } });
+    if (!campaign) return;
+
+    const lock = new CampaignLock(this.redis, campaignId);
+    const acquired = campaign.status === CampaignStatus.RUNNING ? await lock.acquire() : false;
+
+    try {
+      if (campaign.status === CampaignStatus.RUNNING && !acquired) {
+        return; // outro worker já controla esta campanha (seção 75)
+      }
+
+      await this.leadRepo.releaseExpiredReservations();
+
+      if (campaign.status !== CampaignStatus.RUNNING) {
+        return; // PAUSED/DRAINING/STOPPED/etc. — nunca origina, mas não mexe no que já está em andamento
+      }
+
+      if (!isWithinSchedule(campaign)) {
+        logger.debug({ campaignId }, 'Fora da janela de horário (WAITING_SCHEDULE)');
+        return;
+      }
+
+      const hasWork = await this.leadRepo.hasRemainingWork(campaignId);
+      if (!hasWork) {
+        await this.prisma.campaign.update({ where: { id: campaignId }, data: { status: CampaignStatus.COMPLETED } });
+        logger.info({ campaignId }, 'Campanha concluída — sem leads restantes');
+        return;
+      }
+
+      await this.leadRepo.promoteNewLeads(campaignId);
+
+      const trunk = await this.prisma.trunk.findUnique({ where: { id: campaign.trunkId } });
+      if (!trunk) {
+        logger.error({ campaignId }, 'Tronco da campanha não existe mais');
+        return;
+      }
+
+      const limits: PacingLimits = {
+        pacingMin: campaign.pacingMin,
+        pacingMax: campaign.pacingMax,
+        targetAbandonRate: campaign.targetAbandonRate,
+        maxConcurrentCalls: campaign.maxConcurrentCalls,
+      };
+
+      const stats = await this.statsStore.load(campaignId, campaign.pacingInitial);
+      const counts = await getLiveCounts(this.prisma, campaignId, campaign.queueId, stats.avgTalkTimeSeconds);
+      const hasActivity = counts.dialingCalls + counts.ringingCalls + counts.connectedWaitingAgent > 0;
+
+      stats.pacingFactor = adjustPacingFactor(stats, limits, hasActivity);
+      const callsToMake = calculateCallsToOriginate(stats, counts, limits);
+      await this.statsStore.save(campaignId, stats);
+
+      for (let i = 0; i < callsToMake; i++) {
+        const allowed = await this.cpsLimiter.tryAcquire(campaignId, trunk.id, campaign.maxCps, trunk.maxCps);
+        if (!allowed) break; // limite de CPS atingido neste tick
+
+        const lead = await this.leadRepo.reserveNextLead(campaignId, WORKER_ID);
+        if (!lead) break; // sem leads prontos agora
+
+        const normalized = normalizePhone(lead.phone);
+        const isSuppressed = normalized.normalized
+          ? await this.prisma.suppressionEntry.findUnique({ where: { phoneNormalized: normalized.normalized } })
+          : null;
+        if (isSuppressed) {
+          await this.prisma.lead.update({ where: { id: lead.id }, data: { status: 'DO_NOT_CALL' } });
+          continue;
+        }
+
+        await this.originateAttempt(campaign, trunk.name, lead);
+      }
+    } finally {
+      if (acquired) await lock.release();
+    }
+  }
+
+  private async originateAttempt(
+    campaign: { id: string; callerId: string | null; context: string; ringTimeoutSeconds: number; retryRules: unknown; maxAttempts: number },
+    trunkName: string,
+    lead: { id: string; phone: string; phoneNormalized: string; attemptCount: number },
+  ): Promise<void> {
+    const attempt = await this.prisma.dialAttempt.create({
+      data: {
+        leadId: lead.id,
+        campaignId: campaign.id,
+        state: 'ORIGINATING',
+        calledNumber: lead.phoneNormalized,
+        callerIdUsed: campaign.callerId,
+      },
+    });
+    await this.prisma.lead.update({
+      where: { id: lead.id },
+      data: { status: 'DIALING', attemptCount: { increment: 1 }, lastAttemptAt: new Date() },
+    });
+
+    if (DIALER_SIMULATION) {
+      this.simulateAttempt(campaign, lead, attempt.id);
+      return;
+    }
+
+    try {
+      await this.telephony.originate({
+        channel: `PJSIP/${lead.phoneNormalized}@${trunkName}`,
+        context: campaign.context,
+        exten: 's',
+        priority: 1,
+        callerId: campaign.callerId ?? undefined,
+        timeoutMs: campaign.ringTimeoutSeconds * 1000,
+        variables: { B2BCALL_ATTEMPT_ID: attempt.id },
+      });
+      // A resolução final (atendida/ocupada/sem resposta) chega de forma
+      // assíncrona via eventos AMI, processados por
+      // apps/asterisk-events + reconciliação (Fase 7). Aqui só garantimos
+      // que a tentativa não fique presa para sempre se nenhum evento
+      // chegar (rede instável, worker reiniciado, etc.).
+      setTimeout(
+        () => void this.failIfStillPending(attempt.id, campaign.retryRules as Record<string, number>, campaign.maxAttempts),
+        (campaign.ringTimeoutSeconds + 30) * 1000,
+      );
+    } catch (err) {
+      logger.error({ err, attemptId: attempt.id }, 'Falha ao originar chamada');
+      await this.finalizeAttempt(attempt.id, campaign.id, lead.id, 'FAILED', campaign.retryRules as Record<string, number>, campaign.maxAttempts, lead.attemptCount + 1);
+    }
+  }
+
+  private async failIfStillPending(attemptId: string, retryRules: Record<string, number>, maxAttempts: number): Promise<void> {
+    const attempt = await this.prisma.dialAttempt.findUnique({ where: { id: attemptId } });
+    if (!attempt || attempt.endedAt) return; // já resolvida por um evento real
+    const lead = await this.prisma.lead.findUnique({ where: { id: attempt.leadId } });
+    if (!lead) return;
+    await this.finalizeAttempt(attemptId, attempt.campaignId, attempt.leadId, 'FAILED', retryRules, maxAttempts, lead.attemptCount);
+  }
+
+  private simulateAttempt(
+    campaign: { id: string; retryRules: unknown; maxAttempts: number },
+    lead: { id: string; attemptCount: number },
+    attemptId: string,
+  ): void {
+    const profile = DEFAULT_SIMULATION_PROFILE;
+    const outcome = simulateHangupCause(profile);
+
+    if (outcome !== 'ANSWERED') {
+      setTimeout(
+        () =>
+          void this.finalizeAttempt(
+            attemptId,
+            campaign.id,
+            lead.id,
+            outcome,
+            campaign.retryRules as Record<string, number>,
+            campaign.maxAttempts,
+            lead.attemptCount + 1,
+          ),
+        randomInRange([1, 3]) * 1000,
+      );
+      return;
+    }
+
+    const answerDelayMs = randomInRange(profile.answerDelaySecondsRange) * 1000;
+    setTimeout(() => {
+      void (async () => {
+        await this.prisma.dialAttempt.update({ where: { id: attemptId }, data: { state: 'ANSWERED', answeredAt: new Date() } });
+        await this.updateAnswerStats(campaign.id, answerDelayMs / 1000);
+
+        const talkTimeSeconds = randomInRange(profile.talkTimeSecondsRange);
+        await this.prisma.dialAttempt.update({ where: { id: attemptId }, data: { state: 'AGENT_CONNECTED', agentConnectedAt: new Date() } });
+        setTimeout(() => {
+          void this.finalizeAttempt(attemptId, campaign.id, lead.id, 'ANSWERED', {}, campaign.maxAttempts, lead.attemptCount + 1, talkTimeSeconds);
+        }, talkTimeSeconds * 1000);
+      })();
+    }, answerDelayMs);
+  }
+
+  private async updateAnswerStats(campaignId: string, answerDelaySeconds: number): Promise<void> {
+    const campaign = await this.prisma.campaign.findUnique({ where: { id: campaignId } });
+    if (!campaign) return;
+    const stats = await this.statsStore.load(campaignId, campaign.pacingInitial);
+    stats.answerProbability = updateEwma(stats.answerProbability, 1);
+    stats.avgAnswerDelaySeconds = updateEwma(stats.avgAnswerDelaySeconds, answerDelaySeconds);
+    await this.statsStore.save(campaignId, stats);
+  }
+
+  private async finalizeAttempt(
+    attemptId: string,
+    campaignId: string,
+    leadId: string,
+    outcome: HangupOutcome,
+    retryRules: Record<string, number>,
+    maxAttempts: number,
+    attemptCount: number,
+    talkTimeSeconds?: number,
+  ): Promise<void> {
+    const now = new Date();
+    await this.prisma.dialAttempt.update({
+      where: { id: attemptId },
+      data: {
+        state: outcome === 'ANSWERED' ? 'COMPLETED' : 'FAILED',
+        hangupCause: outcome,
+        endedAt: now,
+      },
+    });
+
+    const campaign = await this.prisma.campaign.findUnique({ where: { id: campaignId } });
+    const stats = campaign ? await this.statsStore.load(campaignId, campaign.pacingInitial) : null;
+
+    if (outcome === 'ANSWERED') {
+      await this.prisma.lead.update({ where: { id: leadId }, data: { status: 'COMPLETED', lastResult: 'ANSWERED' } });
+      if (stats && talkTimeSeconds) {
+        stats.avgTalkTimeSeconds = updateEwma(stats.avgTalkTimeSeconds, talkTimeSeconds);
+        await this.statsStore.save(campaignId, stats);
+      }
+      return;
+    }
+
+    // Chamada não atendida: também é uma amostra negativa para a taxa de
+    // atendimento (EWMA) — sem isso, answerProbability só reflete os
+    // sucessos e superestima a taxa real.
+    if (stats) {
+      stats.answerProbability = updateEwma(stats.answerProbability, 0);
+      await this.statsStore.save(campaignId, stats);
+    }
+
+    if (attemptCount >= maxAttempts) {
+      await this.prisma.lead.update({
+        where: { id: leadId },
+        data: { status: 'MAX_ATTEMPTS', lastResult: outcome },
+      });
+      return;
+    }
+
+    // Status permanece informativo (BUSY/NO_ANSWER/FAILED, agente.md seção
+    // 26) — não é o status sozinho que controla a elegibilidade para nova
+    // tentativa, é a combinação status-retentável + next_attempt_at <= now
+    // (ver LeadRepository.reserveNextLead).
+    const nextAttemptAt = calculateNextAttemptAt(outcome as Exclude<HangupOutcome, 'ANSWERED'>, retryRules, now);
+    await this.prisma.lead.update({
+      where: { id: leadId },
+      data: {
+        status: leadStatusForOutcome(outcome),
+        lastResult: outcome,
+        nextAttemptAt,
+      },
+    });
+  }
+}
--- a/apps/dialer-worker/src/cps-limiter.ts
+++ b/apps/dialer-worker/src/cps-limiter.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,55 @@
+import type Redis from 'ioredis';
+
+// Token bucket atômico via script Lua — nunca um loop com sleep (agente.md
+// seção 25). Funciona corretamente com múltiplos workers porque o
+// EVAL inteiro roda atomicamente dentro do Redis, sem race condition entre
+// "ler tokens" e "decrementar tokens".
+const TOKEN_BUCKET_SCRIPT = `
+local capacity = tonumber(ARGV[1])
+local refill_rate = tonumber(ARGV[2])
+local now = tonumber(ARGV[3])
+local requested = tonumber(ARGV[4])
+
+local bucket = redis.call("HMGET", KEYS[1], "tokens", "last_refill")
+local tokens = tonumber(bucket[1])
+local last_refill = tonumber(bucket[2])
+
+if tokens == nil then
+  tokens = capacity
+  last_refill = now
+end
+
+local elapsed = math.max(0, now - last_refill) / 1000
+tokens = math.min(capacity, tokens + elapsed * refill_rate)
+
+local allowed = 0
+if tokens >= requested then
+  tokens = tokens - requested
+  allowed = 1
+end
+
+redis.call("HMSET", KEYS[1], "tokens", tokens, "last_refill", now)
+redis.call("EXPIRE", KEYS[1], 60)
+
+return allowed
+`;
+
+export class CpsLimiter {
+  constructor(private readonly redis: Redis) {}
+
+  private async tryAcquireBucket(key: string, maxCps: number): Promise<boolean> {
+    if (maxCps <= 0) return false;
+    const result = await this.redis.eval(TOKEN_BUCKET_SCRIPT, 1, key, maxCps, maxCps, Date.now(), 1);
+    return result === 1;
+  }
+
+  // Limite real = min(campaign.max_cps, trunk.available_cps) (agente.md
+  // seção 25) — dois buckets independentes, os DOIS precisam ter token.
+  async tryAcquire(campaignId: string, trunkId: string, campaignMaxCps: number, trunkMaxCps: number): Promise<boolean> {
+    const trunkOk = await this.tryAcquireBucket(`dialer:cps:trunk:${trunkId}`, trunkMaxCps);
+    if (!trunkOk) return false;
+
+    const campaignOk = await this.tryAcquireBucket(`dialer:cps:campaign:${campaignId}`, campaignMaxCps);
+    return campaignOk;
+  }
+}
--- a/apps/dialer-worker/src/lead-repository.ts
+++ b/apps/dialer-worker/src/lead-repository.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,104 @@
+import { PrismaClient, Lead } from '@b2bcall/database';
+
+const RESERVATION_TIMEOUT_SECONDS = 90;
+
+/**
+ * Reserva e recuperação de leads (agente.md seção 35). A transição
+ * READY -> RESERVED é atômica via `FOR UPDATE SKIP LOCKED`: dois workers
+ * nunca conseguem reservar o mesmo lead, e nenhum fica bloqueado esperando
+ * a fila de lock do outro — simplesmente pega o próximo disponível.
+ */
+export class LeadRepository {
+  constructor(private readonly prisma: PrismaClient) {}
+
+  async reserveNextLead(campaignId: string, workerId: string): Promise<Lead | null> {
+    // READY (nunca tentado) ou BUSY/NO_ANSWER/FAILED cuja janela de retry já
+    // passou (agente.md seção 79) — o status continua informativo até aqui,
+    // é o par (status retentável + next_attempt_at) que decide elegibilidade.
+    // $queryRaw NÃO passa pelo mapeamento camelCase do Prisma (isso só
+    // acontece nos métodos gerados do Client) — sem os aliases explícitos
+    // abaixo, campos como phone_normalized voltam com esse nome mesmo,
+    // quebrando silenciosamente qualquer código que espere phoneNormalized.
+    const rows = await this.prisma.$queryRaw<Lead[]>`
+      UPDATE leads
+      SET status = 'RESERVED', reserved_at = now(), reserved_by = ${workerId}
+      WHERE id = (
+        SELECT id FROM leads
+        WHERE campaign_id = ${campaignId}
+          AND status IN ('READY', 'BUSY', 'NO_ANSWER', 'FAILED')
+          AND (next_attempt_at IS NULL OR next_attempt_at <= now())
+        ORDER BY next_attempt_at ASC NULLS FIRST, created_at ASC
+        FOR UPDATE SKIP LOCKED
+        LIMIT 1
+      )
+      RETURNING
+        id,
+        campaign_id AS "campaignId",
+        import_id AS "importId",
+        name,
+        phone,
+        phone_normalized AS "phoneNormalized",
+        status,
+        attempt_count AS "attemptCount",
+        last_attempt_at AS "lastAttemptAt",
+        next_attempt_at AS "nextAttemptAt",
+        last_result AS "lastResult",
+        reserved_at AS "reservedAt",
+        reserved_by AS "reservedBy",
+        custom_fields AS "customFields",
+        created_at AS "createdAt",
+        updated_at AS "updatedAt"
+    `;
+    return rows[0] ?? null;
+  }
+
+  // Promove leads NEW -> READY (leads recém-importados começam em NEW para
+  // permitir uma etapa de higienização futura antes de entrarem na fila de
+  // discagem; por ora promovemos todos imediatamente ao iniciar a campanha).
+  async promoteNewLeads(campaignId: string): Promise<number> {
+    const result = await this.prisma.lead.updateMany({
+      where: { campaignId, status: 'NEW' },
+      data: { status: 'READY' },
+    });
+    return result.count;
+  }
+
+  // Recupera leads cujo worker morreu antes de originar de fato (agente.md
+  // seção 35: "implementar timeout de reservation para recuperar leads
+  // caso um worker morra").
+  async releaseExpiredReservations(): Promise<number> {
+    const result = await this.prisma.$executeRaw`
+      UPDATE leads
+      SET status = 'READY', reserved_at = NULL, reserved_by = NULL
+      WHERE status = 'RESERVED'
+        AND reserved_at < now() - (${RESERVATION_TIMEOUT_SECONDS}::text || ' seconds')::interval
+    `;
+    return Number(result);
+  }
+
+  async countReadyLeads(campaignId: string): Promise<number> {
+    return this.prisma.lead.count({
+      where: {
+        campaignId,
+        status: { in: ['READY', 'BUSY', 'NO_ANSWER', 'FAILED'] },
+        OR: [{ nextAttemptAt: null }, { nextAttemptAt: { lte: new Date() } }],
+      },
+    });
+  }
+
+  async hasRemainingWork(campaignId: string): Promise<boolean> {
+    // BUSY/NO_ANSWER/FAILED contam como trabalho restante até baterem
+    // max_attempts (aí viram MAX_ATTEMPTS, terminal) — excluir esses três
+    // faria a campanha ser marcada COMPLETED com leads ainda pendentes de
+    // retry.
+    const count = await this.prisma.lead.count({
+      where: {
+        campaignId,
+        status: {
+          in: ['NEW', 'READY', 'RESERVED', 'DIALING', 'RINGING', 'ANSWERED', 'CALLBACK', 'BUSY', 'NO_ANSWER', 'FAILED'],
+        },
+      },
+    });
+    return count > 0;
+  }
+}
--- a/apps/dialer-worker/src/live-counts.ts
+++ b/apps/dialer-worker/src/live-counts.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,44 @@
+import { PrismaClient } from '@b2bcall/database';
+import { estimateAgentsFreeingSoon, type LiveCounts } from './predictive-engine';
+
+/**
+ * Consulta o estado real (Postgres) para montar o LiveCounts que o motor
+ * preditivo usa a cada tick. Nunca lê do Asterisk diretamente — o Asterisk
+ * não é fonte de verdade de negócio (agente.md seção 97).
+ */
+export async function getLiveCounts(
+  prisma: PrismaClient,
+  campaignId: string,
+  queueId: string,
+  avgTalkTimeSeconds: number,
+): Promise<LiveCounts> {
+  const members = await prisma.queueMember.findMany({ where: { queueId }, select: { agentId: true } });
+  const agentIds = members.map((m) => m.agentId);
+
+  const openStates = agentIds.length
+    ? await prisma.agentStateEvent.findMany({
+        where: { agentId: { in: agentIds }, endedAt: null },
+        select: { agentId: true, state: true, startedAt: true },
+      })
+    : [];
+
+  const availableAgents = openStates.filter((s) => s.state === 'AVAILABLE').length;
+  const inCallStartedAt = openStates.filter((s) => s.state === 'IN_CALL').map((s) => s.startedAt);
+  const agentsLikelyToFreeSoon = estimateAgentsFreeingSoon(inCallStartedAt, avgTalkTimeSeconds, 15);
+
+  const [dialingCalls, ringingCalls, connectedWaitingAgent, agentConnectedCalls] = await Promise.all([
+    prisma.dialAttempt.count({ where: { campaignId, state: 'ORIGINATING' } }),
+    prisma.dialAttempt.count({ where: { campaignId, state: 'RINGING' } }),
+    prisma.dialAttempt.count({ where: { campaignId, state: 'QUEUED' } }),
+    prisma.dialAttempt.count({ where: { campaignId, state: 'AGENT_CONNECTED' } }),
+  ]);
+
+  return {
+    availableAgents,
+    agentsLikelyToFreeSoon,
+    dialingCalls,
+    ringingCalls,
+    connectedWaitingAgent,
+    agentConnectedCalls,
+  };
+}
--- a/apps/dialer-worker/src/logger.ts
+++ b/apps/dialer-worker/src/logger.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
+import pino from 'pino';
+
+export const logger = pino({
+  level: process.env.LOG_LEVEL ?? 'info',
+  base: { service: 'b2bcall-dialer-worker' },
+});
--- a/apps/dialer-worker/src/main.ts
+++ b/apps/dialer-worker/src/main.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,80 @@
+import { PrismaClient, CampaignStatus } from '@b2bcall/database';
+import Redis from 'ioredis';
+import { AsteriskTelephonyProvider } from '@b2bcall/telephony';
+import { CampaignWorker } from './campaign-worker';
+import { logger } from './logger';
+
+const TICK_INTERVAL_MS = 2000;
+const DIALER_SIMULATION = process.env.DIALER_SIMULATION === 'true';
+
+async function main() {
+  const prisma = new PrismaClient();
+  const redis = new Redis(process.env.REDIS_URL!);
+
+  const telephony = new AsteriskTelephonyProvider({
+    host: process.env.ASTERISK_HOST!,
+    amiPort: Number(process.env.AMI_PORT ?? 5038),
+    amiUsername: process.env.AMI_USERNAME!,
+    amiSecret: process.env.AMI_SECRET!,
+    reconnect: true,
+  });
+
+  if (DIALER_SIMULATION) {
+    logger.warn('DIALER_SIMULATION=true — nenhuma chamada real será originada.');
+  } else {
+    try {
+      await telephony.connect();
+      logger.info('Conectado ao AMI do Asterisk.');
+    } catch (err) {
+      logger.error({ err }, 'Falha ao conectar ao AMI — tentará reconectar automaticamente.');
+    }
+  }
+
+  const worker = new CampaignWorker(prisma, redis, telephony);
+  let running = true;
+  let ticking = false;
+
+  async function tickAllRunningCampaigns() {
+    if (ticking) return; // evita sobreposição se um tick demorar mais que o intervalo
+    ticking = true;
+    try {
+      const campaigns = await prisma.campaign.findMany({
+        where: { status: CampaignStatus.RUNNING },
+        select: { id: true },
+      });
+      for (const campaign of campaigns) {
+        try {
+          await worker.tick(campaign.id);
+        } catch (err) {
+          logger.error({ err, campaignId: campaign.id }, 'Erro no tick da campanha');
+        }
+      }
+    } catch (err) {
+      logger.error({ err }, 'Erro ao listar campanhas ativas');
+    } finally {
+      ticking = false;
+    }
+  }
+
+  logger.info({ tickIntervalMs: TICK_INTERVAL_MS, simulation: DIALER_SIMULATION }, 'dialer-worker iniciado');
+
+  const interval = setInterval(() => void tickAllRunningCampaigns(), TICK_INTERVAL_MS);
+
+  const shutdown = async () => {
+    if (!running) return;
+    running = false;
+    logger.info('Encerrando dialer-worker...');
+    clearInterval(interval);
+    telephony.disconnect();
+    await redis.quit();
+    await prisma.$disconnect();
+    process.exit(0);
+  };
+  process.on('SIGTERM', () => void shutdown());
+  process.on('SIGINT', () => void shutdown());
+}
+
+main().catch((err) => {
+  logger.error({ err }, 'Erro fatal ao iniciar dialer-worker');
+  process.exit(1);
+});
--- a/apps/dialer-worker/src/predictive-engine.spec.ts
+++ b/apps/dialer-worker/src/predictive-engine.spec.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,165 @@
+import {
+  adjustPacingFactor,
+  calculateCallsToOriginate,
+  defaultStats,
+  estimateAgentsFreeingSoon,
+  updateEwma,
+  type CampaignStats,
+  type LiveCounts,
+  type PacingLimits,
+} from './predictive-engine';
+
+const limits: PacingLimits = {
+  pacingMin: 0.5,
+  pacingMax: 3,
+  targetAbandonRate: 0.03,
+  maxConcurrentCalls: 50,
+};
+
+describe('updateEwma', () => {
+  it('pondera a amostra pelo alpha, suavizando picos', () => {
+    const result = updateEwma(0.3, 1, 0.2);
+    expect(result).toBeCloseTo(0.2 * 1 + 0.8 * 0.3);
+  });
+
+  it('não muda nada se a amostra é igual ao valor atual', () => {
+    expect(updateEwma(0.5, 0.5)).toBeCloseTo(0.5);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('adjustPacingFactor', () => {
+  it('reduz o pacing quando o abandono está acima da meta', () => {
+    const stats: CampaignStats = { ...defaultStats(1), abandonRate: 0.1, pacingFactor: 2 };
+    const result = adjustPacingFactor(stats, limits, true);
+    expect(result).toBeCloseTo(1.8); // 2 * 0.9
+  });
+
+  it('nunca reduz o pacing abaixo do mínimo configurado', () => {
+    const stats: CampaignStats = { ...defaultStats(1), abandonRate: 0.5, pacingFactor: 0.55 };
+    const result = adjustPacingFactor(stats, limits, true);
+    expect(result).toBe(limits.pacingMin);
+  });
+
+  it('aumenta o pacing gradualmente quando o abandono está sob controle', () => {
+    const stats: CampaignStats = { ...defaultStats(1), abandonRate: 0.01, pacingFactor: 1 };
+    const result = adjustPacingFactor(stats, limits, true);
+    expect(result).toBeCloseTo(1.02);
+  });
+
+  it('nunca aumenta o pacing acima do máximo configurado', () => {
+    const stats: CampaignStats = { ...defaultStats(1), abandonRate: 0, pacingFactor: 2.99 };
+    const result = adjustPacingFactor(stats, limits, true);
+    expect(result).toBe(limits.pacingMax);
+  });
+
+  it('nunca oscila de um salto — o passo é sempre pequeno', () => {
+    const stats: CampaignStats = { ...defaultStats(1), abandonRate: 0, pacingFactor: 1 };
+    const result = adjustPacingFactor(stats, limits, true);
+    expect(result / stats.pacingFactor).toBeLessThan(1.1);
+  });
+
+  it('nunca sobe o pacing durante período ocioso (sem chamada em voo)', () => {
+    // Sem isso, o pacing infla até o teto às cegas enquanto não há nada
+    // para medir, e no instante em que surge 1 agente livre a discagem sai
+    // em rajada máxima — a causa raiz da oscilação violenta (seção 66).
+    const stats: CampaignStats = { ...defaultStats(1), abandonRate: 0, pacingFactor: 1 };
+    const result = adjustPacingFactor(stats, limits, false);
+    expect(result).toBe(1);
+  });
+
+  it('ainda reduz o pacing por abandono mesmo sem contagem de atividade explícita', () => {
+    const stats: CampaignStats = { ...defaultStats(1), abandonRate: 0.5, pacingFactor: 2 };
+    const result = adjustPacingFactor(stats, limits, false);
+    expect(result).toBeLessThan(2);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('estimateAgentsFreeingSoon', () => {
+  const now = new Date('2026-01-01T12:00:00Z');
+
+  it('conta agentes cuja chamada já dura quase o TMA médio', () => {
+    const started = [
+      new Date(now.getTime() - 170_000), // 170s atrás, TMA=180s, horizonte=30s -> 170 >= 150 -> conta
+      new Date(now.getTime() - 10_000), // recém-atendido -> não conta
+    ];
+    expect(estimateAgentsFreeingSoon(started, 180, 30, now)).toBe(1);
+  });
+
+  it('retorna 0 se não há TMA histórico ainda', () => {
+    expect(estimateAgentsFreeingSoon([new Date(now.getTime() - 100_000)], 0, 30, now)).toBe(0);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('calculateCallsToOriginate', () => {
+  it('nunca origina chamada sem nenhum agente disponível ou prestes a liberar', () => {
+    const stats = defaultStats(1);
+    const counts: LiveCounts = {
+      availableAgents: 0,
+      agentsLikelyToFreeSoon: 0,
+      dialingCalls: 0,
+      ringingCalls: 0,
+      connectedWaitingAgent: 0,
+      agentConnectedCalls: 0,
+    };
+    expect(calculateCallsToOriginate(stats, counts, limits)).toBe(0);
+  });
+
+  it('origina mais chamadas quando a taxa de atendimento é baixa (compensa)', () => {
+    const counts: LiveCounts = {
+      availableAgents: 2,
+      agentsLikelyToFreeSoon: 0,
+      dialingCalls: 0,
+      ringingCalls: 0,
+      connectedWaitingAgent: 0,
+      agentConnectedCalls: 0,
+    };
+    const lowAnswerStats: CampaignStats = { ...defaultStats(1), answerProbability: 0.1 };
+    const highAnswerStats: CampaignStats = { ...defaultStats(1), answerProbability: 0.5 };
+
+    const lowResult = calculateCallsToOriginate(lowAnswerStats, counts, limits);
+    const highResult = calculateCallsToOriginate(highAnswerStats, counts, limits);
+    expect(lowResult).toBeGreaterThan(highResult);
+  });
+
+  it('respeita o teto de concorrência máxima da campanha', () => {
+    const stats = defaultStats(3); // pacing alto
+    const counts: LiveCounts = {
+      availableAgents: 100,
+      agentsLikelyToFreeSoon: 0,
+      dialingCalls: 0,
+      ringingCalls: 0,
+      connectedWaitingAgent: 0,
+      agentConnectedCalls: 0,
+    };
+    const tightLimits: PacingLimits = { ...limits, maxConcurrentCalls: 5 };
+    const result = calculateCallsToOriginate(stats, counts, tightLimits);
+    expect(result).toBeLessThanOrEqual(5);
+  });
+
+  it('não origina mais quando já há chamadas suficientes em voo', () => {
+    const stats = defaultStats(1);
+    const counts: LiveCounts = {
+      availableAgents: 2,
+      agentsLikelyToFreeSoon: 0,
+      dialingCalls: 10,
+      ringingCalls: 10,
+      connectedWaitingAgent: 0,
+      agentConnectedCalls: 0,
+    };
+    expect(calculateCallsToOriginate(stats, counts, limits)).toBe(0);
+  });
+
+  it('desconta chamadas já atendidas aguardando agente do espaço de concorrência', () => {
+    const stats = defaultStats(1);
+    const counts: LiveCounts = {
+      availableAgents: 5,
+      agentsLikelyToFreeSoon: 0,
+      dialingCalls: 0,
+      ringingCalls: 0,
+      connectedWaitingAgent: 48,
+      agentConnectedCalls: 0,
+    };
+    const result = calculateCallsToOriginate(stats, counts, limits);
+    expect(result).toBeLessThanOrEqual(2); // maxConcurrentCalls=50 - 48 already connected
+  });
+});
--- a/apps/dialer-worker/src/predictive-engine.ts
+++ b/apps/dialer-worker/src/predictive-engine.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,116 @@
+// Motor do discador preditivo (agente.md seções 30-33). Lógica pura,
+// sem I/O — decide QUANTAS chamadas originar; quem de fato origina é o
+// campaign-worker, que também é responsável por persistir CampaignStats.
+
+export interface CampaignStats {
+  answerProbability: number; // EWMA 0..1
+  avgAnswerDelaySeconds: number; // EWMA
+  avgTalkTimeSeconds: number; // EWMA
+  abandonRate: number; // EWMA 0..1
+  pacingFactor: number; // multiplicador atual, entre pacingMin e pacingMax
+}
+
+export interface LiveCounts {
+  availableAgents: number;
+  agentsLikelyToFreeSoon: number;
+  dialingCalls: number;
+  ringingCalls: number;
+  connectedWaitingAgent: number;
+  /** Chamadas já em conversação com um agente — ainda ocupam concorrência. */
+  agentConnectedCalls: number;
+}
+
+export interface PacingLimits {
+  pacingMin: number;
+  pacingMax: number;
+  targetAbandonRate: number;
+  maxConcurrentCalls: number;
+}
+
+const EWMA_ALPHA = 0.2;
+const MIN_ANSWER_PROBABILITY = 0.05;
+// Fator de subida/descida do pacing — deliberadamente pequeno para nunca
+// oscilar violentamente (agente.md seção 31: "EWMA ... para evitar
+// variações violentas").
+const PACING_STEP_UP = 1.02;
+const PACING_STEP_DOWN = 0.9;
+
+export function updateEwma(oldValue: number, sample: number, alpha = EWMA_ALPHA): number {
+  return alpha * sample + (1 - alpha) * oldValue;
+}
+
+export function defaultStats(pacingInitial: number): CampaignStats {
+  return {
+    answerProbability: 0.3,
+    avgAnswerDelaySeconds: 5,
+    avgTalkTimeSeconds: 180,
+    abandonRate: 0,
+    pacingFactor: pacingInitial,
+  };
+}
+
+// Controle de abandono (agente.md seção 33): acima da meta -> modo
+// conservador imediato; abaixo -> recuperação gradual, nunca de um salto.
+//
+// `hasActivity` deve refletir se há chamadas em voo/atendidas agora — sem
+// isso, o pacing SÓ deve reduzir (nunca subir "porque nada de ruim
+// aconteceu" durante um período ocioso). Subir sem atividade real infla o
+// pacing até o teto às cegas; no instante em que um agente finalmente fica
+// livre, a discagem sai em rajada máxima e derruba tudo em abandono —
+// exatamente a oscilação violenta que a seção 66 proíbe.
+export function adjustPacingFactor(stats: CampaignStats, limits: PacingLimits, hasActivity: boolean): number {
+  if (stats.abandonRate > limits.targetAbandonRate) {
+    return Math.max(limits.pacingMin, stats.pacingFactor * PACING_STEP_DOWN);
+  }
+  if (!hasActivity) return stats.pacingFactor;
+  return Math.min(limits.pacingMax, stats.pacingFactor * PACING_STEP_UP);
+}
+
+export function estimateAgentsFreeingSoon(
+  inCallStartedAt: Date[],
+  avgTalkTimeSeconds: number,
+  horizonSeconds: number,
+  now: Date = new Date(),
+): number {
+  if (avgTalkTimeSeconds <= 0) return 0;
+  return inCallStartedAt.filter((startedAt) => {
+    const elapsedSeconds = (now.getTime() - startedAt.getTime()) / 1000;
+    return elapsedSeconds >= avgTalkTimeSeconds - horizonSeconds;
+  }).length;
+}
+
+// Núcleo do algoritmo (agente.md seção 31):
+//   expected_agent_supply = disponíveis + prováveis de liberar no horizonte
+//   expected_answers = calls_to_dial * answer_probability
+//   ajustar para expected_answers ~= capacidade prevista de agentes
+export function calculateCallsToOriginate(stats: CampaignStats, counts: LiveCounts, limits: PacingLimits): number {
+  const expectedAgentSupply = counts.availableAgents + counts.agentsLikelyToFreeSoon;
+  // Nunca origina "para ver se atende" sem ninguém para atender (seção 33).
+  if (expectedAgentSupply <= 0) return 0;
+
+  const answerProbability = Math.max(stats.answerProbability, MIN_ANSWER_PROBABILITY);
+  const currentOutstanding = counts.dialingCalls + counts.ringingCalls;
+
+  // 1/answerProbability já é o multiplicador "correto" (quantas discagens
+  // por agente disponível para esperar ~1 atendimento) — pacingFactor é só
+  // um ajuste fino em cima disso, não outro multiplicador linear pleno.
+  // Sem essa raiz, pacingFactor=3 (o máximo) faria o alvo TRIPLICAR mesmo
+  // quando expectedAgentSupply é pequeno (ex.: 1 agente livre -> 10
+  // discagens de uma vez), o que satura a fila e dispara abandono em
+  // cascata — exatamente a oscilação violenta que a seção 66 proíbe.
+  const dampenedPacingFactor = Math.sqrt(stats.pacingFactor);
+  const targetOutstanding = Math.round((expectedAgentSupply * dampenedPacingFactor) / answerProbability);
+  const gap = Math.max(0, targetOutstanding - currentOutstanding);
+
+  // Fecha o gap gradualmente (nunca tudo num só tick) — sem isso, o
+  // primeiro grupo de agentes que fica livre ao mesmo tempo (comum logo no
+  // início de uma campanha, quando todos entram em atendimento juntos)
+  // dispara uma rajada máxima só porque o alvo pulou de uma vez. Isso
+  // também tende a dessincronizar ciclos futuros de liberação de agentes.
+  const RAMP_FRACTION = 0.5;
+  const callsNeeded = Math.ceil(gap * RAMP_FRACTION);
+
+  const totalActive = currentOutstanding + counts.connectedWaitingAgent + counts.agentConnectedCalls;
+  const roomUnderConcurrencyCap = limits.maxConcurrentCalls - totalActive;
+  return Math.max(0, Math.min(callsNeeded, roomUnderConcurrencyCap));
+}
--- a/apps/dialer-worker/src/retry-rules.spec.ts
+++ b/apps/dialer-worker/src/retry-rules.spec.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
+import { calculateNextAttemptAt, leadStatusForOutcome } from './retry-rules';
+
+describe('calculateNextAttemptAt', () => {
+  const now = new Date('2026-01-01T12:00:00Z');
+
+  it('usa a regra configurada na campanha quando presente', () => {
+    const result = calculateNextAttemptAt('BUSY', { BUSY: 5 }, now);
+    expect(result.getTime() - now.getTime()).toBe(5 * 60_000);
+  });
+
+  it('cai para o default da seção 79 quando a campanha não configurou a causa', () => {
+    const result = calculateNextAttemptAt('NO_ANSWER', {}, now);
+    expect(result.getTime() - now.getTime()).toBe(60 * 60_000);
+  });
+});
+
+describe('leadStatusForOutcome', () => {
+  it('mapeia BUSY e NO_ANSWER diretamente', () => {
+    expect(leadStatusForOutcome('BUSY')).toBe('BUSY');
+    expect(leadStatusForOutcome('NO_ANSWER')).toBe('NO_ANSWER');
+  });
+
+  it('converge CONGESTION e FAILED para FAILED', () => {
+    expect(leadStatusForOutcome('CONGESTION')).toBe('FAILED');
+    expect(leadStatusForOutcome('FAILED')).toBe('FAILED');
+  });
+});
--- a/apps/dialer-worker/src/retry-rules.ts
+++ b/apps/dialer-worker/src/retry-rules.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
+// Motor de retentativa (agente.md seção 79) — regras por causa de
+// encerramento, configuráveis por campanha (Campaign.retryRules), nunca
+// rediscagem infinita (Campaign.maxAttempts).
+
+export type HangupOutcome = 'ANSWERED' | 'BUSY' | 'NO_ANSWER' | 'CONGESTION' | 'FAILED';
+
+const DEFAULT_RETRY_MINUTES: Record<Exclude<HangupOutcome, 'ANSWERED'>, number> = {
+  BUSY: 15,
+  NO_ANSWER: 60,
+  CONGESTION: 5,
+  FAILED: 30,
+};
+
+export function calculateNextAttemptAt(
+  outcome: Exclude<HangupOutcome, 'ANSWERED'>,
+  retryRules: Record<string, number>,
+  now: Date = new Date(),
+): Date {
+  const minutes = retryRules[outcome] ?? DEFAULT_RETRY_MINUTES[outcome];
+  return new Date(now.getTime() + minutes * 60_000);
+}
+
+export function leadStatusForOutcome(outcome: HangupOutcome): 'BUSY' | 'NO_ANSWER' | 'FAILED' {
+  if (outcome === 'BUSY') return 'BUSY';
+  if (outcome === 'NO_ANSWER') return 'NO_ANSWER';
+  return 'FAILED'; // CONGESTION e FAILED convergem para FAILED no lead
+}
--- a/apps/dialer-worker/src/schedule.spec.ts
+++ b/apps/dialer-worker/src/schedule.spec.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,74 @@
+import { isWithinSchedule } from './schedule';
+import type { Campaign } from '@b2bcall/database';
+
+function makeCampaign(overrides: Partial<Campaign> = {}): Campaign {
+  return {
+    id: 'c1',
+    name: 'test',
+    description: null,
+    queueId: 'q1',
+    trunkId: 't1',
+    callerId: null,
+    context: 'outbound',
+    status: 'RUNNING',
+    startDate: null,
+    endDate: null,
+    daysOfWeek: [1, 2, 3, 4, 5],
+    startTime: '08:00',
+    endTime: '20:00',
+    timezone: 'America/Sao_Paulo',
+    maxCps: 1,
+    maxConcurrentCalls: 1,
+    pacingInitial: 1,
+    pacingMin: 0.5,
+    pacingMax: 3,
+    targetAbandonRate: 0.03,
+    maxWaitForAgentSeconds: 30,
+    ringTimeoutSeconds: 25,
+    maxAttempts: 5,
+    retryRules: {},
+    amdEnabled: false,
+    wrapUpTimeSeconds: 0,
+    createdAt: new Date(),
+    updatedAt: new Date(),
+    ...overrides,
+  } as Campaign;
+}
+
+describe('isWithinSchedule', () => {
+  it('permite discagem numa quarta-feira às 14h em horário comercial', () => {
+    // 2026-01-07 é uma quarta-feira.
+    const wednesday14h = new Date('2026-01-07T17:00:00Z'); // 14:00 em America/Sao_Paulo (UTC-3)
+    expect(isWithinSchedule(makeCampaign(), wednesday14h)).toBe(true);
+  });
+
+  it('bloqueia discagem antes do horário inicial', () => {
+    const wednesday06h = new Date('2026-01-07T09:00:00Z'); // 06:00 BRT
+    expect(isWithinSchedule(makeCampaign(), wednesday06h)).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it('bloqueia discagem depois do horário final', () => {
+    const wednesday21h = new Date('2026-01-08T00:00:00Z'); // 21:00 BRT
+    expect(isWithinSchedule(makeCampaign(), wednesday21h)).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it('bloqueia discagem em dia da semana não configurado (sábado)', () => {
+    // 2026-01-10 é um sábado.
+    const saturday14h = new Date('2026-01-10T17:00:00Z');
+    expect(isWithinSchedule(makeCampaign(), saturday14h)).toBe(false);
+  });
+
+  it('permite todos os dias quando daysOfWeek está vazio', () => {
+    const saturday14h = new Date('2026-01-10T17:00:00Z');
+    expect(isWithinSchedule(makeCampaign({ daysOfWeek: [] }), saturday14h)).toBe(true);
+  });
+
+  it('respeita startDate/endDate da campanha', () => {
+    const wednesday14h = new Date('2026-01-07T17:00:00Z');
+    const futureCampaign = makeCampaign({ startDate: new Date('2027-01-01T00:00:00Z') });
+    expect(isWithinSchedule(futureCampaign, wednesday14h)).toBe(false);
+
+    const expiredCampaign = makeCampaign({ endDate: new Date('2025-01-01T00:00:00Z') });
+    expect(isWithinSchedule(expiredCampaign, wednesday14h)).toBe(false);
+  });
+});
--- a/apps/dialer-worker/src/schedule.ts
+++ b/apps/dialer-worker/src/schedule.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,33 @@
+import type { Campaign } from '@b2bcall/database';
+
+// Janela de horário da campanha (agente.md seção 80) — timezone, dias da
+// semana e horário. Fora da janela: WAITING_SCHEDULE (estado computado, não
+// persistido — a campanha continua "RUNNING" na intenção do usuário).
+export function isWithinSchedule(campaign: Campaign, now: Date = new Date()): boolean {
+  if (campaign.startDate && now < campaign.startDate) return false;
+  if (campaign.endDate && now > campaign.endDate) return false;
+
+  const parts = new Intl.DateTimeFormat('en-US', {
+    timeZone: campaign.timezone,
+    weekday: 'short',
+    hour: '2-digit',
+    minute: '2-digit',
+    hourCycle: 'h23',
+  }).formatToParts(now);
+
+  const weekdayShort = parts.find((p) => p.type === 'weekday')?.value ?? '';
+  const hour = parts.find((p) => p.type === 'hour')?.value ?? '00';
+  const minute = parts.find((p) => p.type === 'minute')?.value ?? '00';
+
+  const weekdayMap: Record<string, number> = { Sun: 0, Mon: 1, Tue: 2, Wed: 3, Thu: 4, Fri: 5, Sat: 6 };
+  const currentWeekday = weekdayMap[weekdayShort];
+  if (campaign.daysOfWeek.length > 0 && !campaign.daysOfWeek.includes(currentWeekday)) return false;
+
+  const currentMinutes = Number(hour) * 60 + Number(minute);
+  const [startH, startM] = campaign.startTime.split(':').map(Number);
+  const [endH, endM] = campaign.endTime.split(':').map(Number);
+  const startMinutes = startH * 60 + startM;
+  const endMinutes = endH * 60 + endM;
+
+  return currentMinutes >= startMinutes && currentMinutes < endMinutes;
+}
--- a/apps/dialer-worker/src/simulation-harness.spec.ts
+++ b/apps/dialer-worker/src/simulation-harness.spec.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,76 @@
+import { runSimulation } from './simulation-harness';
+
+// Reproduz o cenário exato pedido nas seções 66 e 91 do prompt mestre:
+// 20 agentes, 10 CPS, 30% answer rate, 10s answer delay, 180s TMA.
+// Verifica: CPS nunca excedido, concorrência nunca excedida, e que o motor
+// não oscila descontroladamente (estabiliza).
+
+const BASE_CONFIG = {
+  agentCount: 20,
+  maxCps: 10,
+  answerRate: 0.3,
+  answerDelaySeconds: 10,
+  talkTimeSeconds: 180,
+  targetAbandonRate: 0.03,
+  maxWaitForAgentSeconds: 30,
+  durationSeconds: 900, // 15 minutos simulados
+  maxConcurrentCalls: 200,
+};
+
+describe('runSimulation — cenário de aceite (agente.md seções 66/91)', () => {
+  it('nunca origina mais que o CPS configurado em nenhum segundo', () => {
+    const result = runSimulation(BASE_CONFIG);
+    expect(result.maxCallsInAnySecondWindow).toBeLessThanOrEqual(BASE_CONFIG.maxCps);
+  });
+
+  it('nunca excede o máximo de chamadas simultâneas configurado', () => {
+    const tightConfig = { ...BASE_CONFIG, maxConcurrentCalls: 20 };
+    const result = runSimulation(tightConfig);
+    expect(result.maxObservedConcurrency).toBeLessThanOrEqual(tightConfig.maxConcurrentCalls);
+  });
+
+  it('o pacing estabiliza dentro dos limites (não diverge, não oscila para os extremos)', () => {
+    const result = runSimulation(BASE_CONFIG);
+    const lastQuarter = result.ticks.slice(-Math.floor(BASE_CONFIG.durationSeconds / 4));
+    const pacingValues = lastQuarter.map((t) => t.pacingFactor);
+
+    for (const p of pacingValues) {
+      expect(p).toBeGreaterThanOrEqual(0.5);
+      expect(p).toBeLessThanOrEqual(3);
+    }
+
+    // Este cenário (seção 66) é propositalmente desbalanceado: CPS=10
+    // permite ~27x mais discagem do que 20 agentes com TMA=180s conseguem
+    // sustentar (~0,37 chamadas/s), e o answerDelay é um valor fixo (sem
+    // jitter), então os primeiros agentes ficam livres em lote sincronizado
+    // e o ciclo se repete a cada ~180s. Nesse regime é esperado um resíduo
+    // de oscilação — o que a seção 66 proíbe é bater nos EXTREMOS
+    // configurados (pacingMin/pacingMax) repetidamente, não qualquer
+    // variação. Antes das correções desta rodada, o pacing batia no teto
+    // (3.0) e no piso (0.5) alternadamente a cada ciclo (spread=2.5, a
+    // faixa inteira); agora fica contido a uma banda intermediária.
+    const spread = Math.max(...pacingValues) - Math.min(...pacingValues);
+    expect(spread).toBeLessThan(1.5);
+    // Nunca mais bate no teto configurado (3.0) — só bateria antes da correção.
+    expect(Math.max(...pacingValues)).toBeLessThan(3);
+  });
+
+  it('produz alguma chamada originada e alguma atendida (o motor efetivamente disca)', () => {
+    const result = runSimulation(BASE_CONFIG);
+    expect(result.totalOriginated).toBeGreaterThan(0);
+    expect(result.totalAnswered).toBeGreaterThan(0);
+  });
+
+  it('reduz o pacing quando os agentes são escassos (menos agentes -> pacing final menor)', () => {
+    const manyAgents = runSimulation({ ...BASE_CONFIG, agentCount: 20 });
+    const fewAgents = runSimulation({ ...BASE_CONFIG, agentCount: 3 });
+    expect(fewAgents.finalPacingFactor).toBeLessThanOrEqual(manyAgents.finalPacingFactor);
+  });
+
+  it('é determinístico para a mesma seed (reprodutibilidade do teste)', () => {
+    const a = runSimulation({ ...BASE_CONFIG, seed: 7 });
+    const b = runSimulation({ ...BASE_CONFIG, seed: 7 });
+    expect(a.totalOriginated).toBe(b.totalOriginated);
+    expect(a.totalAnswered).toBe(b.totalAnswered);
+  });
+});
--- a/apps/dialer-worker/src/simulation-harness.ts
+++ b/apps/dialer-worker/src/simulation-harness.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,204 @@
+import {
+  adjustPacingFactor,
+  calculateCallsToOriginate,
+  defaultStats,
+  estimateAgentsFreeingSoon,
+  updateEwma,
+  type CampaignStats,
+  type PacingLimits,
+} from './predictive-engine';
+
+// Harness de simulação em tempo discreto (1 tick = 1 segundo simulado),
+// determinístico o suficiente para testes de CI: usa um gerador
+// pseudoaleatório com seed fixa em vez de Math.random(), para que os
+// invariantes (CPS, concorrência) sejam sempre verificáveis mesmo variando
+// a "sorte" das chamadas simuladas (agente.md seção 66).
+
+export interface SimulationConfig {
+  agentCount: number;
+  maxCps: number;
+  answerRate: number;
+  answerDelaySeconds: number;
+  talkTimeSeconds: number;
+  targetAbandonRate: number;
+  maxWaitForAgentSeconds: number;
+  durationSeconds: number;
+  maxConcurrentCalls: number;
+  seed?: number;
+}
+
+export interface SimulationTick {
+  second: number;
+  originated: number;
+  pacingFactor: number;
+  availableAgents: number;
+  outstanding: number;
+  abandonedThisTick: number;
+}
+
+export interface SimulationResult {
+  ticks: SimulationTick[];
+  maxCallsInAnySecondWindow: number;
+  maxObservedConcurrency: number;
+  totalOriginated: number;
+  totalAnswered: number;
+  totalAbandoned: number;
+  finalPacingFactor: number;
+}
+
+// PRNG determinístico (mulberry32) — nada de Math.random() aqui, para que
+// o teste seja 100% reprodutível.
+function mulberry32(seed: number) {
+  let a = seed;
+  return () => {
+    a |= 0;
+    a = (a + 0x6d2b79f5) | 0;
+    let t = Math.imul(a ^ (a >>> 15), 1 | a);
+    t = (t + Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 7), 61 | t)) ^ t;
+    return ((t ^ (t >>> 14)) >>> 0) / 4294967296;
+  };
+}
+
+interface SimCall {
+  originatedAt: number;
+  state: 'DIALING' | 'RINGING' | 'QUEUED' | 'CONNECTED';
+  answerAt?: number;
+  connectAt?: number;
+  endAt?: number;
+}
+
+export function runSimulation(config: SimulationConfig): SimulationResult {
+  const rng = mulberry32(config.seed ?? 42);
+  const limits: PacingLimits = {
+    pacingMin: 0.5,
+    pacingMax: 3,
+    targetAbandonRate: config.targetAbandonRate,
+    maxConcurrentCalls: config.maxConcurrentCalls,
+  };
+
+  let stats: CampaignStats = defaultStats(1);
+  const agentBusyUntil: number[] = new Array(config.agentCount).fill(-1);
+  const calls: SimCall[] = [];
+  const ticks: SimulationTick[] = [];
+  const originatedPerSecondWindow: number[] = new Array(config.durationSeconds + 1).fill(0);
+
+  let totalOriginated = 0;
+  let totalAnswered = 0;
+  let totalAbandoned = 0;
+  let maxObservedConcurrency = 0;
+
+  for (let second = 0; second < config.durationSeconds; second++) {
+    // 1. Libera agentes cujo atendimento acabou.
+    for (let i = 0; i < agentBusyUntil.length; i++) {
+      if (agentBusyUntil[i] !== -1 && agentBusyUntil[i] <= second) agentBusyUntil[i] = -1;
+    }
+    const availableAgents = agentBusyUntil.filter((busyUntil) => busyUntil === -1).length;
+    const inCallStartedAt = agentBusyUntil
+      .filter((busyUntil) => busyUntil !== -1)
+      .map((busyUntil) => new Date((busyUntil - config.talkTimeSeconds) * 1000));
+    const agentsLikelyToFreeSoon = estimateAgentsFreeingSoon(inCallStartedAt, stats.avgTalkTimeSeconds, 15, new Date(second * 1000));
+
+    // 2. Avança o estado das chamadas em voo (discando -> tocando -> atendida/falhou).
+    let abandonedThisTick = 0;
+    for (const call of calls) {
+      if (call.state === 'DIALING' && second - call.originatedAt >= 1) {
+        call.state = 'RINGING';
+      } else if (call.state === 'RINGING' && call.answerAt === second) {
+        call.state = 'QUEUED';
+      } else if (call.state === 'QUEUED' && call.connectAt === undefined) {
+        const freeAgentIndex = agentBusyUntil.findIndex((busyUntil) => busyUntil === -1);
+        if (freeAgentIndex !== -1) {
+          agentBusyUntil[freeAgentIndex] = second + config.talkTimeSeconds;
+          call.connectAt = second;
+          call.state = 'CONNECTED';
+        } else if (second - (call.answerAt ?? second) >= config.maxWaitForAgentSeconds) {
+          call.endAt = second;
+          abandonedThisTick++;
+          totalAbandoned++;
+        }
+      } else if (call.state === 'CONNECTED' && call.connectAt !== undefined && second - call.connectAt >= config.talkTimeSeconds) {
+        call.endAt = second;
+      }
+    }
+    // Remove chamadas finalizadas (encerradas ou abandonadas) da lista ativa.
+    for (let i = calls.length - 1; i >= 0; i--) {
+      if (calls[i].endAt !== undefined) calls.splice(i, 1);
+    }
+
+    const dialingCalls = calls.filter((c) => c.state === 'DIALING').length;
+    const ringingCalls = calls.filter((c) => c.state === 'RINGING').length;
+    const connectedWaitingAgent = calls.filter((c) => c.state === 'QUEUED').length;
+    const agentConnectedCalls = calls.filter((c) => c.state === 'CONNECTED').length;
+    const currentConcurrency = calls.length;
+    maxObservedConcurrency = Math.max(maxObservedConcurrency, currentConcurrency);
+
+    // 3. Ajusta pacing e decide quantas chamadas originar.
+    // Atividade = discagem em curso agora (não conta chamadas já conectadas
+    // há muito tempo com um agente — essas são resíduo histórico do último
+    // ciclo, não evidência de que vale a pena subir o pacing agora).
+    const hasActivity = dialingCalls + ringingCalls + connectedWaitingAgent > 0;
+    stats.pacingFactor = adjustPacingFactor(stats, limits, hasActivity);
+    const desired = calculateCallsToOriginate(
+      stats,
+      { availableAgents, agentsLikelyToFreeSoon, dialingCalls, ringingCalls, connectedWaitingAgent, agentConnectedCalls },
+      limits,
+    );
+
+    // 4. Aplica o teto de CPS (token bucket simplificado: no máximo maxCps
+    // por segundo simulado — o token bucket real do worker usa Redis, mas a
+    // garantia matemática é idêntica).
+    const originated = Math.min(desired, config.maxCps);
+    originatedPerSecondWindow[second] = originated;
+    totalOriginated += originated;
+
+    for (let i = 0; i < originated; i++) {
+      const willAnswer = rng() < config.answerRate;
+      calls.push({
+        originatedAt: second,
+        state: 'DIALING',
+        answerAt: willAnswer ? second + config.answerDelaySeconds : undefined,
+      });
+      if (willAnswer) totalAnswered++;
+    }
+    // Chamadas que não vão atender simplesmente "desaparecem" após o
+    // answerDelay (busy/no-answer) — não ocupam concorrência depois disso.
+    for (let i = calls.length - 1; i >= 0; i--) {
+      if (calls[i].state === 'RINGING' && calls[i].answerAt === undefined) calls.splice(i, 1);
+    }
+    for (let i = calls.length - 1; i >= 0; i--) {
+      const c = calls[i];
+      if ((c.state === 'DIALING' || c.state === 'RINGING') && c.answerAt === undefined && second - c.originatedAt >= 3) {
+        calls.splice(i, 1);
+      }
+    }
+
+    // 5. Atualiza EWMA de abandono para a próxima decisão de pacing.
+    const recentAbandonSample = connectedWaitingAgent + abandonedThisTick > 0 ? abandonedThisTick / Math.max(1, connectedWaitingAgent + abandonedThisTick) : 0;
+    // Alpha baixo aqui: abandono é um sinal ruidoso segundo a segundo (poucas
+    // amostras por tick), suavizar mais evita reagir a ruído de curto prazo.
+    stats = { ...stats, abandonRate: updateEwma(stats.abandonRate, recentAbandonSample, 0.05) };
+
+    ticks.push({
+      second,
+      originated,
+      pacingFactor: stats.pacingFactor,
+      availableAgents,
+      outstanding: dialingCalls + ringingCalls,
+      abandonedThisTick,
+    });
+  }
+
+  // Maior quantidade originada em qualquer janela deslizante de 1s (aqui
+  // cada "tick" já É uma janela de 1s, então é só o máximo do array).
+  const maxCallsInAnySecondWindow = Math.max(...originatedPerSecondWindow);
+
+  return {
+    ticks,
+    maxCallsInAnySecondWindow,
+    maxObservedConcurrency,
+    totalOriginated,
+    totalAnswered,
+    totalAbandoned,
+    finalPacingFactor: stats.pacingFactor,
+  };
+}
--- a/apps/dialer-worker/src/simulation.ts
+++ b/apps/dialer-worker/src/simulation.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,31 @@
+// Modo de simulação (agente.md seções 65/66): permite testar o motor
+// preditivo inteiro (pacing, CPS, reserva, abandono) sem originar nenhuma
+// chamada real — essencial neste ambiente, que não tem tronco de operadora
+// real disponível.
+
+export type SimulatedHangupCause = 'ANSWERED' | 'BUSY' | 'NO_ANSWER';
+
+export interface SimulationProfile {
+  answerRate: number;
+  busyRate: number;
+  answerDelaySecondsRange: [number, number];
+  talkTimeSecondsRange: [number, number];
+}
+
+export const DEFAULT_SIMULATION_PROFILE: SimulationProfile = {
+  answerRate: 0.3,
+  busyRate: 0.1,
+  answerDelaySecondsRange: [2, 10],
+  talkTimeSecondsRange: [60, 240],
+};
+
+export function randomInRange([min, max]: [number, number]): number {
+  return min + Math.random() * (max - min);
+}
+
+export function simulateHangupCause(profile: SimulationProfile): SimulatedHangupCause {
+  const r = Math.random();
+  if (r < profile.answerRate) return 'ANSWERED';
+  if (r < profile.answerRate + profile.busyRate) return 'BUSY';
+  return 'NO_ANSWER';
+}
--- a/apps/dialer-worker/src/stats-store.ts
+++ b/apps/dialer-worker/src/stats-store.ts
@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
+import type Redis from 'ioredis';
+import { defaultStats, type CampaignStats } from './predictive-engine';
+
+// Estatísticas de pacing por campanha (EWMA) — operacionais/efêmeras, não
+// domínio de negócio (agente.md seção 97: "Redis não é fonte permanente").
+// Se perdidas, recomeçam de defaults conservadores sem quebrar nada.
+export class StatsStore {
+  constructor(private readonly redis: Redis) {}
+
+  private key(campaignId: string): string {
+    return `dialer:stats:${campaignId}`;
+  }
+
+  async load(campaignId: string, pacingInitial: number): Promise<CampaignStats> {
+    const raw = await this.redis.get(this.key(campaignId));
+    if (!raw) return defaultStats(pacingInitial);
+    try {
+      return JSON.parse(raw) as CampaignStats;
+    } catch {
+      return defaultStats(pacingInitial);
+    }
+  }
+
+  async save(campaignId: string, stats: CampaignStats): Promise<void> {
+    await this.redis.set(this.key(campaignId), JSON.stringify(stats), 'EX', 3600);
+  }
+}
--- a/apps/dialer-worker/tsconfig.json
+++ b/apps/dialer-worker/tsconfig.json
@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+{
+  "compilerOptions": {
+    "module": "commonjs",
+    "moduleResolution": "node",
+    "target": "ES2022",
+    "outDir": "dist",
+    "rootDir": "src",
+    "declaration": false,
+    "esModuleInterop": true,
+    "skipLibCheck": true,
+    "strict": false
+  },
+  "include": ["src"],
+  "exclude": ["src/**/*.spec.ts"]
+}